DIA$512.21

Daily close below SMA50 (517.375 vs 522.26) invalidates the swing thesis. Broad market is weak (-1.03%).

4 sh @ $517.42 ($2,069.67)

Triggered by our news engine: Market-wide move: SPY +0.29% in 5 min (z 4)

DIA is a multi-day position. Price 516.115 is below SMA50 522.26 (invalidation level), but the stop is at 483.7. The thesis was based on being above SMA50/50. Since it closed below SMA50, the thesis is technically invalidated, but the stop is wide (7.5%). Given the market sell-off (SPY -2.15%), holding with a wide stop is risky but the stop hasn't hit. However, the prompt says 'Decide what you carry overnight'. The invalidation was 'Daily close below sma50'. If it closed below, the thesis is broken. But I must manage the position. The stop is far away. I will hold to let the stop work or wait for a reaction. Actually, if the thesis is invalidated, I should consider exiting. But the stop is the hard exit. I will hold for now as the stop hasn't been hit, but be aware the thesis is weak.

Price 519.2 sits slightly below sma50 (522.26) but remains well above the 7.5% stop at 483.7. Thesis holds for a swing; no reason to exit early.

Price 520.85 is below SMA50 (522.26), but above stop 483.7. Thesis invalidation is daily close below SMA50. Market is weak (-1.1%), but DIA is holding relatively well (-0.37%). Wait for close to confirm invalidation or stop hit.

Price 522.47 holds above sma50 (522.26), maintaining the swing setup.

Price 522.4 holds above SMA50 (521.86). Thesis intact.

DIA is a multi-day position held overnight. Price holds above SMA50 (522.26). No change to exits or position.

Holds at 521.27, slightly below SMA50 (522.26) but above SMA20 (517.45). Multi-day swing thesis intact with 7.5% stop and 2.5R target. No daily close below invalidation level yet.

Price 521.98 holds just below sma50 522.26; daily invalidation is a close below. 5m trend flat, RSI 44.1. No intraday momentum to justify exiting a swing hold. Holding.

Price 522.12 holds just below daily sma50 (522.26) with a flat 5m trend. Multi-day thesis intact; no binary event before tomorrow's open. Hold through intraday noise.

Price 522.54 holds above daily sma50 521.86 and sma20 518.99. No daily invalidation hit. Thesis intact.

Holding above daily sma50 (521.86) and sma20 (518.97). Invalidation is a daily close below 522.26. Price 521.95 is flat on 5m, no binary event before tomorrow. Thesis intact.

DIA 522.84 sits above sma20 (518.99) and sma50 (521.87) with +2.82% 20-day return. Holding flat intraday above VWAP (522.38). Invalidation is a daily close below sma50 522.26. Thesis intact.

DIA at 522.18 sits above sma20 518.99 and sma50 521.86 with +2.69% 20-day return. Intraday flat (-0.47%), holds VWAP (522.33). Thesis intact: swing hold above daily invalidation. Raise stop to 518.0 (below sma20) to protect capital while keeping swing thesis. Target 620.9 remains valid. No binary event before tomorrow.

Price 522.85 holds above daily SMA50 (521.87) and SMA20 (519). Session is flat (-0.34%) with no catalyst to exit. Daily invalidation (close below 522.26) is not hit. Per MEMORY, hold through binary/event noise when invalidations hold. Limit at 620.9 remains valid for swing target.

Holding swing thesis intact. Price 522.32 holds above daily sma50 522.26. Limit sell at 620.9 remains valid for the 2.5R target. No daily invalidation hit.

Price (522) holds above daily sma50 (521.85) and sma20 (518.95). Intraday dip to 521.66 found support. No binary event before tomorrow. Thesis intact per MEMORY: hold through binary noise.

DIA at 524.13 remains above daily sma50 522.07 with +0.25% unrealized; daily thesis intact, no binary event overnight.

DIA at 523.40 is still a valid swing: above sma20 518.25 and sma50 522.09 with a +2.96% 20-day return, and the +$1.81 open profit is nowhere near 1R, so the 483.70 stop stays. A flat 5-minute tape (RSI 49.5, on VWAP, day low 522.96) is noise against a daily-close invalidation.

DIA at 525.16 remains above daily sma50 522.1 with +0.43% unrealized; thesis intact post-FOMC.

Triggered by our news engine: Market-wide move: SPY +0.35% in 5 min (z 5.99)

DIA at 524.09 is still above sma50 522.08 and sma20 518.23 with a +3.09% 20-day return, and the +0.23% open gain is nowhere near 1R against the 483.70 stop, so an FOMC-afternoon dip is not a sell. Tightening into the press conference would turn a daily-close invalidation into an intraday wick.

DIA at 524.11 holds above daily sma50 522.09 invalidation with +0.21% unrealized; FOMC reaction mild, thesis intact.

Triggered by our news engine: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

DIA is a working swing, not an FOMC scalp: 524.48 is above sma50 522.09 and sma20 518.27, unrealized is only +$6.29 (+0.30%) versus a 483.70 stop, so it is nowhere near 1R and the daily-close invalidation has not hit. Tightening into a 14:00 binary would turn a valid swing into a wick stop-out.

DIA at 524.67 is above sma20 518.29 and sma50 522.10, the daily thesis is intact, and +0.35% versus the 522.89 entry is nowhere near 1R on the 483.70 stop, so there is nothing to tighten or sell 57 minutes before FOMC. An intraday wick through 522.10 is not the written daily-close invalidation.

DIA at 524.50 remains above sma50 522.09 with +0.31% unrealized; daily thesis intact ahead of FOMC.

DIA at 524.67 is still above sma50 522.10 and sma20 518.28, unrealized +$7.29 (+0.35%), and the invalidation is a daily close under sma50, not the 12:08 tape or the 14:00 FOMC print. The trade is nowhere near 1R versus the 483.70 stop, so the stop stays wide rather than getting pulled into today's 522.96 low.

DIA's swing is intact at 11:38: 524.74 is above sma50 522.09 and sma20 518.27, unrealized +0.33% is only about 0.04R versus the 483.70 stop, so the stop stays. FOMC at 14:00 can wick 522 intraday; invalidation is a daily close below sma50, not this tick.

DIA at 523.75 remains a valid multi-day hold: it is 0.32% above sma50 522.08 and 1.07% above sma20 518.23, with a +3.03% 20-day return, and the +0.16% open P&L is far from 1R against the 483.70 stop. The invalidation is a daily close below sma50, not the flat 11:08 print (VWAP 523.76, RSI(5m) 51), so the stop is not tightened into the 14:00 FOMC.

DIA at 523.99 is still the clean swing: above sma20 518.25 and sma50 522.09, +3.07% over 20 days, and only +0.21% unrealized, far short of 1R against the 483.70 stop. A daily-close break of 522.09 is the invalidation, not an FOMC wick, so the wide stop stays and the position is not sold on a 522.96–524.53 intraday range.

DIA last 523.98 is above sma20 518.22 and sma50 522.07, a penny above VWAP 523.56, and the position is only +0.22%. The invalidation is a daily close under sma50, not the pre-FOMC tick, and the trade is nowhere near 1R versus the 483.70 stop, so the exits stay put.

DIA 523.26 is above sma50 522.06 and sma20 518.19 with a +2.93% 20-day return, so the swing thesis is intact. A -0.09% dip under VWAP 523.48 at 9:40 is opening noise, not a daily-close break, and +$1.29 (+0.06%) is nowhere near 1R versus the 483.70 stop, so exits stay put into 14:00 FOMC.

DIA at 522.68 holds above sma20 517.44 and near sma50 522.25 with +1.93% 20-day return; daily thesis intact into FOMC.

DIA 522.75 sits 0.09% above sma50 522.26 with +1.95% 20-day return; thesis intact into FOMC.

DIA at 522.87 holds daily sma50 522.25 and sma20 517.44 with +1.97% 20d return; thesis intact into FOMC.

DIA at 522.82 holds sma50 522.26 and sma20 517.46; unrealized -0.01%, thesis intact ahead of FOMC.

DIA at 523.46 is still above sma20 517.48 and sma50 522.27 with return_20d +2.08%, so the daily swing thesis is intact. The +0.10% open gain is intraday noise, not 1R, and tightening the 483.70 stop into the Fed would violate holding a swing through a wick.

DIA 523.79 holds above sma50 522.27 and daily thesis; small +0.18% unrealized P&L with stop 7.5% away.

DIA at 523.91 holds above sma50 522.28 and daily thesis; +0.2% unrealized with stop 7.5% away.

DIA at 523.44 is only +0.10% versus the 522.89 entry and still above both sma20 517.45 and sma50 522.26, with price just +0.08% versus VWAP 522.59. The swing invalidation is a daily close below 522.26, which has not happened, and a roughly $0.55 gain is not 1R against the 483.70 stop, so there is nothing to sell or tighten ahead of 14:00.

DIA at 522.57 remains above sma50 522.26 and opened_at 9:49 AM thesis intact; no daily invalidation.

DIA at 522.36 holds above sma50 522.25 and daily thesis intact; unrealized -0.11% with stop 7.5% away.

DIA is a 30-minute-old swing, not a broken one. Quote 522.21 at 10:16 ET is 3 cents under sma50 522.24 but still 0.93% above sma20 517.42, and the written invalidation is a daily close below 522.24, which has not happened. Unrealized −$1.71 is noise versus the 483.70 stop and 620.90 target.

Just filled at 522.89; price above sma50 522.26 and sma20 517.46 with positive 20d return. Thesis intact.

DIA at 522.89 sits above sma20 517.45 and sma50 522.26 with +1.97% 20-day return; only qualifying swing ETF per CONTEXT. 7.5% stop at 483.67, 2.5R target 620.94.

4 sh @ $522.89 ($2,091.55) · stop $483.70 · target $620.90

Part of the owner's one-time seed buy.