Episode · the market · Oct 29, 4:44 PM

NOW: 2026-10-29T20:44Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P3 background)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:43Z session, P3, salience 40: After the close: review today's decisions and your book, and leave notes and watches for tomorrow.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $2774.55 · equity $9965.64 (-0.34%) · today -0.58% · 4 stocks, 0 options positions
- DIA: 4 shares at 522.89, now 522.469 (-0.08%), stop 483.7, target 620.9, multi_day horizon, opened 9:49 AM ET. Thesis: DIA at 522.89 sits above sma20 517.45 and sma50 522.26 with +1.97% 20-day return; only qualifying swing ETF per CONTEXT. 7.5% stop at 483.67, 2.5R target 620.94. Invalidation: Daily close below sma50 522.26
- IWM: 6 shares at 285.08, now 283.96 (-0.39%), stop 277.5, target 300, multi_day horizon, opened 11:35 AM ET. Thesis: IWM 284.99 holds above daily sma20 (277.55) and sma50 (284.66) with +1.31% today. 5m trend up, holding VWAP (283.93). Daily invalidation is a close below sma20. Stop at 277.50 (2.6% risk), target 300.00 (5.3% reward), R:R 2.0. Conviction 7. Invalidation: Daily close below sma20 277.55
- SOFI: 64 shares at 17.37, now 17.2107 (-1.09%), stop 16.95, target 18.2, multi_day horizon, opened 9:45 AM ET. Thesis: Breakout above daily sma20 (15.36) and 5-min opening range high (17.18) on volume. Holding above VWAP (17.04). Q3 beat and raised 2027 guidance support multi-day follow-through. R:R 2.25. Invalidation: Daily close below VWAP 17.04 or 5-min swing low 16.88
- SPY: 3 shares at 767.06, now 765.6 (-0.20%), stop 710.6, target 912.2, multi_day horizon, opened 9:49 AM ET. Thesis: SPY 768.19 is the owner's stated reference broad index; near sma50 767.49 despite slight sma20 discount. 7.5% stop 710.58, 2.5R target 912.22. Invalidation: Daily close below sma50 767.49

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: outside the regular session. New buys: blocked (outside the regular session).
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 0/4 open; $997 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2491.41); 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2575.24 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2491); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 765.58 (-0.76%), QQQ 707.28 (-2.75%), IWM n/a, DIA n/a, VIXY n/a, TLT n/a

YOUR NOTES
none

YOUR WATCHES
- f34f8bae-bda8-408f-a29d-0e07f6b1027e: BBWI below 22.27, until 2026-10-29T20:55Z. Note: BBWI breakout failed to hold above VWAP (22.29) and ORL high (22.52). Price 22.635 is above ORL low (22.27) but below VWAP. Wait for close or break below 22.27 to exit.

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "action": "sell",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "Invalidation triggered. Daily close at 765.60 is below sma50 (767.49), breaking the swing thesis.",
      "evidence": [
        "SPY closed at 765.60, below the sma50 threshold of 767.49.",
        "Thesis requires a daily close above sma50; price action confirms the break."
      ],
      "invalidation": "N/A (position closed)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "DIA",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 483.7,
      "take_profit": 620.9,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "Price 522.47 holds above sma50 (522.26), maintaining the swing setup.",
      "evidence": [
        "DIA at 522.47, sma50 at 522.26.",
        "No daily close below the moving average threshold."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Daily close below sma50 522.26",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWM",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 277.5,
      "take_profit": 300,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "Price 283.96 holds above sma20 (277.55), keeping the breakout structure intact.",
      "evidence": [
        "IWM at 283.96, sma20 at 277.55.",
        "Price remains above the daily invalidation level."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Daily close below sma20 277.55",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SOFI",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 16.95,
      "take_profit": 18.2,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "Price 17.21 holds above VWAP (17.04), confirming the breakout follow-through.",
      "evidence": [
        "SOFI at 17.21, VWAP at 17.04.",
        "No daily close below VWAP or the 5-min swing low."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Daily close below VWAP 17.04 or 5-min swing low 16.88",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "SPY",
      "text": "Sold on daily close below sma50 (767.49). Thesis invalidated by session close at 765.60."
    },
    {
      "subject": "DIA",
      "text": "Holding above sma50 (522.26). Watch for daily close below 522.26."
    },
    {
      "subject": "IWM",
      "text": "Holding above sma20 (277.55). Watch for daily close below 277.55."
    },
    {
      "subject": "SOFI",
      "text": "Holding above VWAP (17.04). Watch for daily close below 17.04 or 5-min swing low 16.88."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "SPY sold on daily close below sma50 (767.49), invalidating the swing thesis. DIA, IWM, and SOFI remain above their respective invalidation levels (sma50, sma20, VWAP) and are held overnight."
}