Wed, Oct 28, 2026

DIA 523.26 is above sma50 522.06 and sma20 518.19 with a +2.93% 20-day return, so the swing thesis is intact. A -0.09% dip under VWAP 523.48 at 9:40 is opening noise, not a daily-close break, and +$1.29 (+0.06%) is nowhere near 1R versus the 483.70 stop, so exits stay put into 14:00 FOMC.

SPY 770.49 is above the swing invalidation at sma50 767.58 and only $0.34 under sma20 770.83, with unrealized +$10.92 (+0.47%). FOMC is at 14:00 and the position is not near 1R versus the 710.60 stop, so selling or tightening on a 0.07% VWAP dip would repeat the mistake of trading a swing on intraday noise.

DIA last 523.98 is above sma20 518.22 and sma50 522.07, a penny above VWAP 523.56, and the position is only +0.22%. The invalidation is a daily close under sma50, not the pre-FOMC tick, and the trade is nowhere near 1R versus the 483.70 stop, so the exits stay put.

SPY 770.60 is flat to VWAP and still 0.39% above the sma50 767.58 invalidation, which is the only exit on this swing. It is 3 cents under sma20, the same slight discount the position was opened with, and +0.47% is not 1R against the 710.60 stop.

DIA at 523.99 is still the clean swing: above sma20 518.25 and sma50 522.09, +3.07% over 20 days, and only +0.21% unrealized, far short of 1R against the 483.70 stop. A daily-close break of 522.09 is the invalidation, not an FOMC wick, so the wide stop stays and the position is not sold on a 522.96–524.53 intraday range.

SPY at 770.39 is still above the swing invalidation at sma50 767.58, with +$9.97 unrealized, and is the account's reference hold. It is a hair under sma20 770.82 (−0.06%), so this is a hold-through-noise call, not a add, and the 710.60 disaster stop is left alone so a 14:00 wick cannot kick out a position that has not closed below 767.58.

DIA at 523.75 remains a valid multi-day hold: it is 0.32% above sma50 522.08 and 1.07% above sma20 518.23, with a +3.03% 20-day return, and the +0.16% open P&L is far from 1R against the 483.70 stop. The invalidation is a daily close below sma50, not the flat 11:08 print (VWAP 523.76, RSI(5m) 51), so the stop is not tightened into the 14:00 FOMC.

SPY at 770.63 is the reference swing and is still 0.40% above the sma50 invalidation at 767.58, even though it is 0.03% under sma20 770.82. Unrealized +$10.63 (+0.46%) is not 1R versus the 710.60 stop, and selling a working daily hold into a 14:00 event would book noise rather than a broken thesis.

DIA's swing is intact at 11:38: 524.74 is above sma50 522.09 and sma20 518.27, unrealized +0.33% is only about 0.04R versus the 483.70 stop, so the stop stays. FOMC at 14:00 can wick 522 intraday; invalidation is a daily close below sma50, not this tick.

SPY 771.42 is above sma50 767.59 and sma20 770.84 with unrealized +0.56%, about 0.08R versus the 710.60 stop, and the day low 769.27 has not lost sma50. Hold the swing through the 14:00 decision; do not tighten a daily-close stop into event volatility.

DIA at 524.67 is still above sma50 522.10 and sma20 518.28, unrealized +$7.29 (+0.35%), and the invalidation is a daily close under sma50, not the 12:08 tape or the 14:00 FOMC print. The trade is nowhere near 1R versus the 483.70 stop, so the stop stays wide rather than getting pulled into today's 522.96 low.

SPY at 771.47 is above both sma20 770.86 and sma50 767.60, unrealized +$13.24 (+0.57%), and selling the reference swing into a 14:00 FOMC print would turn a valid daily hold into an intraday guess. Not up 1R versus the 710.60 stop, and a breakeven stop at 767.06 sits on the invalidation and inside event risk.

DIA at 524.50 remains above sma50 522.09 with +0.31% unrealized; daily thesis intact ahead of FOMC.

SPY 771.36 above sma50 767.59 and VWAP 770.74; +0.55% unrealized, daily thesis holds into FOMC.

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DIA at 524.67 is above sma20 518.29 and sma50 522.10, the daily thesis is intact, and +0.35% versus the 522.89 entry is nowhere near 1R on the 483.70 stop, so there is nothing to tighten or sell 57 minutes before FOMC. An intraday wick through 522.10 is not the written daily-close invalidation.

SPY at 771.69 is above both sma20 770.87 and sma50 767.60, the swing is +0.60% versus the 767.06 entry, and the day low 769.27 never tested the 50-day. Selling a working index swing into a 2:00 PM binary, or tightening a 710.60 disaster stop into FOMC noise, would violate the daily-close invalidation.

DIA is a working swing, not an FOMC scalp: 524.48 is above sma50 522.09 and sma20 518.27, unrealized is only +$6.29 (+0.30%) versus a 483.70 stop, so it is nowhere near 1R and the daily-close invalidation has not hit. Tightening into a 14:00 binary would turn a valid swing into a wick stop-out.

SPY 770.87 is the reference swing and is still above sma50 767.59, with only +$11.38 (+0.50%) of open profit — not 1R against the 710.60 stop. Selling it 27 minutes before FOMC would abandon a daily thesis that has not broken in order to lock a few dollars.

DIA at 524.11 holds above daily sma50 522.09 invalidation with +0.21% unrealized; FOMC reaction mild, thesis intact.

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SPY 770.62 above sma50 767.6 with +0.49% unrealized; post-FOMC hold keeps daily thesis valid.

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DIA at 524.09 is still above sma50 522.08 and sma20 518.23 with a +3.09% 20-day return, and the +0.23% open gain is nowhere near 1R against the 483.70 stop, so an FOMC-afternoon dip is not a sell. Tightening into the press conference would turn a daily-close invalidation into an intraday wick.

SPY at 771.07 is the reference index and is still above sma20 770.83 and sma50 767.59; +0.53% unrealized is not 1R, and a flat post-FOMC print at VWAP is not a reason to sell a working swing.

DIA at 525.16 remains above daily sma50 522.1 with +0.43% unrealized; thesis intact post-FOMC.

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SPY at 773.08 above sma50 767.63 and VWAP 770.89; +0.78% unrealized, daily thesis holds after FOMC hold.

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DIA at 523.40 is still a valid swing: above sma20 518.25 and sma50 522.09 with a +2.96% 20-day return, and the +$1.81 open profit is nowhere near 1R, so the 483.70 stop stays. A flat 5-minute tape (RSI 49.5, on VWAP, day low 522.96) is noise against a daily-close invalidation.

SPY at 770.50 remains above sma50 767.58 and the 769.27 day low, with +$10.30 unrealized; the 4-cent discount to sma20 770.81 and a -0.19% 30-minute dip after the hawkish hold are not the written invalidation. Keep the swing and do not add risk into the close.

DIA at 524.13 remains above daily sma50 522.07 with +0.25% unrealized; daily thesis intact, no binary event overnight.

SPY at 770.98 above sma50 767.59 with +0.52% unrealized; daily thesis intact post-FOMC, no binary event.