Episode · the market · Nov 12, 3:19 PM

NOW: 2026-11-12T20:19Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:19Z setup, P1, salience 86: GME new session high: closed 25.5 above 25.47 on 7.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 24.95-25.3.
- 20:19Z setup, P1, salience 66: ASND opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 267.63 above 267.17 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 261.39-267.17.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1970.11 · equity $10416.56 (+4.17%) · today -0.88% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.01 (0.00%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.425 (-0.33%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 414.05 (7.87%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NOK: 11 shares at 8.33, now 8.295 (-0.36%), stop 8.14, target 8.6, multi_day horizon, opened 10:52 AM ET. Thesis: NOK is breaking out of its 15-minute opening range (closed 8.31 above 8.28) on 6.2× median volume. Salience is 87. While there is a recent analyst downgrade (AlphaValue/Baader), the price action is ignoring it and showing strong buying pressure. The stop at 8.14 (OR low) is tight. The conviction is lower (6) due to the negative news catalyst, but the volume and breakout structure justify the entry. Reward:risk is >1.2. Invalidation: Price closes below 8.14 (opening range low).
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 187.09 (1.46%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 264 (6.11%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.27 (0.48%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 757.555 (1.32%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 146.11 (1.63%), stop 116.48, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.315 (6.54%), stop 12.99, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below $12.99 (trailing stop) or reclaims SMA50 ($13.48) with weakness.
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 375.94 (6.69%), stop 302.19, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 4/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2604.14). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $1761.78 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2604); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 757.55 (-0.3%), QQQ 687.425 (-0.43%), IWM 278.88, DIA 523.2, VIXY 17.52, TLT 79.87

SUBJECT GME
- 25.5; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT ASND
- 267.63; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
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{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "GME",
      "text": "No news catalyst. Sharp intraday move on heavy volume but unconfirmed. Caution advised. Watch for follow-through or reversal."
    },
    {
      "subject": "ASND",
      "text": "T1 price anomalies at open (down then up). Earnings transcript available but no clear positive catalyst driving the breakout. Volume is good (2.6x) but move is unconfirmed by fundamental news. Caution advised. Watch for confirmation or rejection."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "No new entries. GME lacks a news catalyst despite the breakout. ASND's move is driven by T1 price anomalies and an earnings transcript, but lacks a clear positive fundamental driver. Both setups are unconfirmed by strong news, so I am holding cash and monitoring for clearer catalysts or reversals."
}