Episode · FRVO · Nov 12, 9:55 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:55Z

WOKE FOR: FRVO (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:55Z price, P0, salience 61: FRVO, which you hold, moved -3.34% since your last review at 12.58; stop 11.94.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1913.32 · equity $10368.62 (+3.69%) · today -1.33% · 9 stocks, 0 options positions
- FRVO: 147 shares at 12.58, now 12.16 (-3.10%), stop 11.94, target 14.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio. Invalidation: Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 406.46 (5.90%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 260.665 (4.66%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.2 (0.44%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 757.8 (1.38%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 48.925 (-7.54%), stop 47.67, target 49.35, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average (if I were to re-enter, but I am exiting).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.01 (-1.17%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.115 (4.86%), stop 12.67, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 367.28 (4.31%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 2/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2592.16). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $1705.95 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2592); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 758.005 (-0.24%), QQQ 686.905 (-0.51%), IWM 280.28, DIA 524.9, VIXY 17.17, TLT 80.45

SUBJECT FRVO
- 12.16 (bid 12.09, ask 12.2), -6.06% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
0d554465e2d2 [Nov 12, 9:48 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 76 | -2.9% since] Fervo Energy Q3 Earnings Preview: Here's What You Should Know (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/fervo-energy-q3-earnings-preview-heres-what-you-should-know)
a9dd856473cd [Nov 12, 9:48 AM ET | T2 finance.yahoo.com | earnings | sev 76 | -3.2% since] FRVO Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Google Deal and Geothermal Expansion (https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/frvo-q3-earnings-call-highlights-140000626.html?.tsrc=rss)
cdf869adc33c [Nov 12, 9:48 AM ET | T2 finance.yahoo.com | earnings | sev 76 | -3.2% since] Fervo: Q3 Earnings Snapshot (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fervo-q3-earnings-snapshot-122125001.html?.tsrc=rss)
</untrusted>

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-12T13:00Z] P2 review at 08:00 ET. No new entries allowed until regular session opens (9:30 ET). All 10 holdings are within their stops and targets. Will monitor for open setups and review holdings at 09:40 ET.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-11T14:40Z] P2 review: Market is up (SPY +0.55%, QQQ +1.25%)… [cut: 9,255 characters in all]