Episode · the market · Nov 6, 10:01 AM

NOW: 2026-11-06T15:01Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 92: ILMN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 214.82 above 211.98 on 8.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 205.87-211.98.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 88: YUMC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 49.79 above 49.45 on 7.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 49.21-49.45.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 88: VIK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 86.395 above 85.95 on 7.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 85.73-85.95.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 86: VB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 284.27 above 283.54 on 5.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 282.45-283.54.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 86: TOST opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 35.215 above 35.15 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 34.7-35.15.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 88: SHOP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 147.73 above 146.92 on 13.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 145.49-146.92.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 80: FNF opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 43.44 above 42.94 on 3.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 42.55-42.94.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 80: FER opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 58.145 above 57.78 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 57.26-57.78.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 75: PRIM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 63.005 above 62.18 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 61.51-62.18.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 74: LEU opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 97.56 above 96.56 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 94.57-96.56.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 90: FTAI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 177.215 above 174.13 on 4.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 168.25-174.13.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 86: JNJ opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 271.39 above 268.49 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 266.43-268.49.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 84: PANW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 327.18 above 325.4 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 322.08-325.4.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 83: MP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 35.05 above 34.93 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 34.2-34.93.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 75: WST opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 397.85 above 393.46 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 389.63-393.46.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 90: AGQ opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 48.24 above 47.76 on 10.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 47.2-47.76.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 89: SJM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 131.245 above 130.2 on 5.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 129.34-130.2.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 88: MULL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 10.34 above 10.27 on 21.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 9.66-10.27.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 86: VOOG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 78.78 above 78.66 on 6.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 78.17-78.66.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 85: JHX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 27.82 above 27.72 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 26.59-27.72.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 89: TLN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 332.63 above 330.23 on 9.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 323.65-330.23.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 89: NTAP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 176.58 above 175.03 on 9.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 171.73-175.03.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 86: DAVE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 279.63 above 279.1 on 5.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 273-279.1.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 82: NTRA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 325.14 above 320.42 on 3.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 304.63-320.42.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 81: GDXJ opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 104.83 above 104.22 on 4.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 102.79-104.22.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9795.13 · equity $9901.00 (-0.99%) · today 0% · 1 stocks, 0 options positions
- TNA: 2 shares at 52.95, now 52.87 (-0.04%), stop 51.84, target 55.5, intraday horizon, opened 9:47 AM ET. Thesis: TNA shows the cleanest intraday breakout among the 5 candidates: price closed 53.115 above the 15-min OR high of 52.85 on 5.8× median volume, with a tight 51.84-53.13 range and no negative news. Daily trend is down but RSI 39.7 is not oversold, and the 5-day decline (-7.8%) is modest. Entry at ~53.12, stop at OR low 51.84 (2.4% risk), target 55.50 (4.4% reward, R:R ~1.8). Size 2.5% of equity ($247.50) to keep risk small in a volatile market (-3.5% SPY). Invalidation: Reclaim below 52.85 (OR high) or a broad market selloff accelerating.

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 1/2 in the last hour, 1/4 open; $884 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.25); 1/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9597.11 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 740.645 (-3.4%), QQQ 662.535 (-4.21%), IWM 272.18, DIA 513.8, VIXY 19.875, TLT 81.835

SUBJECT ILMN
- 214.16; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT YUMC
- 49.68; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT VIK
- 86.235; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
73a320d067f7 [Nov 5, 11:39 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 68 | -0.9% since] VIK +0.50% in 1 min (z 4.94 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT VB
- 284.27; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT TOST
- 35.09; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT SHOP
- 147.14; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT FNF
- 43.54; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
68bf3dae3190 [Nov 5, 4:19 PM ET | T1 sec.gov | earnings | sev 60] FNF 8-K: 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1331875/000133187526000093/0001331875-26-000093-index.htm)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT FER
- 58.3; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PRIM
- 63.375; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT LEU
- 97.86; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT FTAI
- 178.85; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, … [cut: 14,037 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "SHOP",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 145.49,
      "take_profit": 155,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "SHOP shows the highest quality breakout among the list: 13.2× median volume, clean break of the 15-min opening range (145.49-146.92) to 147.73. No negative news in our feeds; the move is on volume, not a weak spike. Intraday horizon, flat by close. Risk defined by OR low (145.49), reward ~5% above entry. Fits limits (2.5% allocation, R:R > 1.2).",
      "evidence": [
        "14:58Z setup, P1, salience 80: SHOP OR breakout closed 147.73 above 146.92 on 13.2× median volume; OR 145.49-146.92.",
        "News: nothing in feeds last 24h.",
        "SPY -3.4%, QQQ -4.21%; breakout on heavy volume suggests relative strength despite broad selloff."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 146.92 (OR high) or broad market accelerates lower with SHOP underperforming.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ILMN",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 205.87,
      "take_profit": 225,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "ILMN has the highest salience (92) and strongest volume expansion (8.4× median) among the list. Closed 214.82 well above the OR high of 211.98. No news in feeds, but the volume and price action are decisive for an intraday momentum play. Risk defined by OR low (205.87). Fits limits.",
      "evidence": [
        "14:57Z setup, P1, salience 92: ILMN OR breakout closed 214.82 above 211.98 on 8.4× median volume; OR 205.87-211.98.",
        "News: nothing in feeds last 24h."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 211.98 (OR high) or broad market accelerates lower.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought SHOP and ILMN on their high-salience opening-range breakouts with heavy volume, using OR lows as stops. Held TNA as planned. Market is down sharply (-3.4% SPY), so intraday positions are sized conservatively (2.5% each) and will be closed by code before the bell."
}