Episode · the market · Nov 11, 10:52 AM

NOW: 2026-11-11T15:52Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:52Z setup, P1, salience 93: EXPD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 193.1 above 190.23 on 6.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 190.23-190.23.
- 15:52Z setup, P1, salience 87: APG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 43.66 above 43.5 on 12.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 42.77-43.5.
- 15:52Z setup, P1, salience 87: HRI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 171.26 above 167.5 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 167.5-167.5.
- 15:52Z setup, P1, salience 86: IWF new session high: closed 116.795 above 116.61 on 9.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 115.9-116.24.
- 15:52Z setup, P1, salience 86: SCHE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 35.21 above 35.15 on 15.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 35.09-35.15.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1200.68 · equity $10455.61 (+4.56%) · today +2.22% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- KORU: 4 shares at 8.36, now 8.745 (4.66%), stop 8.5, target 9.5, multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: KORU is the only setup with a clear, recent catalyst: raised 2026 revenue outlook to $48.0M-$48.5M and beat Q3 EPS/revenue estimates. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (8.32) on 4.4× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong uptrend (above SMA20/50/200) with a 5-day return of +15.3% following the earnings beat. The opening range low of 8.19 provides a natural, tight stop. The move is supported by strong volume and a clear fundamental catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below 8.19 (opening range low) or news changes the outlook.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 396.67 (3.45%), stop 318.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 255.745 (2.79%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.8 (0.24%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 24.725 (4.86%), stop 23.8, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 758.115 (1.40%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.085 (-3.56%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 144.64 (0.66%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.755 (2.08%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 360.6 (2.37%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 1/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2613.9). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $991.57 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2614); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 758.115 (+0.72%), QQQ 691.105 (+1.82%), IWM 282.45, DIA 521.085, VIXY 17.3, TLT 80.5

SUBJECT EXPD
- 193.1; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
62b9eaebcacb [Nov 11, 3:00 AM ET | T2 zacks.com | earnings | sev 51] Is EXPD Still a Buy as Earnings Surge but Valuation Stays Elevated? (https://www.zack… [cut: 10,196 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "SCHE",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 34.5,
      "take_profit": 38,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "SCHE broke above its 15-min opening range high (35.15) on 15.5× median volume, closing at 35.21. This is a strong technical breakout with heavy volume. No recent news in our feeds, so the move is purely technical/flow-driven. The setup is strong enough to warrant a trade based on momentum and volume. Entry: 35.21. Stop: 34.50 (below the opening range low of 35.09 and providing a ~2% risk). Target: 38.00 (approx 8% upside, R:R ~4:1).",
      "evidence": [
        "Close 35.21 above OR high 35.15",
        "Volume 15.5× median",
        "No news catalyst, purely technical breakout"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 34.50 (opening range low area).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "APG",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 42.5,
      "take_profit": 46.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "APG broke above its 15-min opening range high (43.5) on 12.5× median volume, closing at 43.66. Similar to SCHE, this is a strong technical breakout with significant volume expansion. No recent news in our feeds. Entry: 43.66. Stop: 42.50 (below the opening range low of 42.77 and providing a ~2.7% risk). Target: 46.50 (approx 6.5% upside, R:R ~2.4:1).",
      "evidence": [
        "Close 43.66 above OR high 43.5",
        "Volume 12.5× median",
        "No news catalyst, purely technical breakout"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 42.50 (opening range low area).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought SCHE and APG on strong opening-range breakouts with heavy volume. No news catalysts, so trades are purely technical momentum plays with tight stops below the opening range lows."
}