Episode · NTAP · Nov 13, 10:02 AM

NOW: 2026-11-13T15:02Z

WOKE FOR: NTAP (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:02Z price, P0, salience 60: NTAP, which you hold, moved -3.02% since your last review at 184.50; stop 149.72.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $218.03 · equity $10269.01 (+2.69%) · today -1.14% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.035 (0.03%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.665 (0.55%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 399.895 (4.18%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 178.92 (-2.83%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 258.95 (4.05%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.33 (0.51%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 752.735 (0.69%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- TOST: 52 shares at 34.47, now 34.65 (0.35%), stop 33.58, target 36.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: TOST is in a strong daily uptrend (above SMA20/50/200), with price breaking the 15-min opening range (33.58-34.24) on 4.1× median volume. The move is clean with no news, but the volume and technical structure are strong. Stop at the opening range low (33.58) provides a tight, logical invalidation. Target 36.50 (near 52-week high) offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 33.58. Invalidation: Close below 33.58 (opening range low)
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 146.6 (1.93%), stop 117.32, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.065 (4.52%), stop 12.99, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below $12.99 (trailing stop) or reclaims SMA50 ($13.48) with weakness.
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 368.27 (4.48%), stop 302.19, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 4/8 entries in 24 h, 1/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2567.25). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $12.65 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2567); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 752.785 (-0.92%), QQQ 678.885 (-1.67%), IWM 276.13, DIA 522.37, VIXY 17.99, TLT 79.315

SUBJECT NTAP
- 178.92 (bid 173.35, ask 179.7), -2.29% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
82615d0eebc3 [Nov 12, 10:03 AM ET | T2 finance.yahoo.com | guidance | sev 80 | -2.3% since] Is NetApp (NTAP) Reasonably Priced Given Its Cash Flow Outlook? (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/netapp-ntap-reasonably-priced-given-221212303.html?.tsrc=rss)
786b1f2b2abc [Nov 12, 10:03 AM ET | T2 na… [cut: 9,671 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "NTAP",
      "action": "sell",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 9,
      "rationale": "The long-term thesis is broken. NTAP is trading 12.21% below its 50-day average and 9.56% below its 20-day average, indicating a significant intermediate-term trend failure. The recent T2 guidance article (82615d0eebc3) highlights that the stock's massive 166% run over 3 years has priced in future cash flows, raising valuation concerns. The stock is currently 16.1% above its 200-day average, but the sharp pullback and lack of confirmation for the bullish AI narrative suggest the long-term uptrend is under threat. The current price of 178.92 is well below the opening range low of 180.01, confirming the bearish momentum. Selling to preserve capital and avoid further downside.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 178.92, -2.29% today, -2.83% since last review",
        "SMA50: 203.8 (-12.21%), SMA20: 197.84 (-9.56%)",
        "T2 Guidance article (82615d0eebc3) citing valuation concerns and priced-in growth",
        "Price below opening range low (180.01) and VWAP (182.09)",
        "RSI 39.4 indicates bearish momentum"
      ],
      "invalidation": "The long-term thesis is broken by the technical breakdown below key moving averages and the negative guidance sentiment.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "NTAP is sold due to a broken long-term thesis: price is 12% below its 50-day average and negative guidance highlights valuation concerns after a 166% run. The technical breakdown below the 20-day and 50-day averages confirms the trend failure."
}