Episode · the market · Nov 9, 4:10 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T21:10Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P3 background)

OBSERVATIONS
- 21:10Z session, P3, salience 40: After the close: review today's decisions and your book, and leave notes and watches for tomorrow.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $2831.54 · equity $10226.64 (+2.27%) · today +3.27% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 389.88 (1.57%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 142.15 (3.86%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 332.97 (9.49%), stop 310.39, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 253.02 (1.70%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.87 (0.28%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 200.15 (0.60%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 752.8468 (0.69%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.3718 (-2.91%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.6 (-0.75%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 356.75 (1.28%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: outside the regular session. New buys: blocked (outside the regular session).
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2556.66). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2627.01 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2557); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 752.8468 (+2.36%), QQQ 678.61 (+3.4%), IWM 282.47, DIA 523.5077, VIXY 18.29, TLT 81.92

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-09T19:27Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. All observed setups (FWONK, UTHR, WTRG, ICVT, ACGL, ELAN) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 11 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $239.54.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-09T18:57Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. All observed setups (RBA, DHI, OLLI, CLX, VALE, NDSN, VB, BRX, SMR, CRL, BNTX, PAG, SGI) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 11 stocks; no… [cut: 9,074 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [
    {
      "kind": "price_above",
      "symbol": "PRAX",
      "level": 340,
      "at": "2026-11-10T09:30Z",
      "hours": 0,
      "priority": "review",
      "note": "Target 340 near; review if it fills or pulls back."
    },
    {
      "kind": "price_above",
      "symbol": "NBIS",
      "level": 145,
      "at": "2026-11-10T09:30Z",
      "hours": 0,
      "priority": "review",
      "note": "Target 145 near; review if it fills or pulls back."
    }
  ],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "PRAX",
      "text": "Target 340 reached ~96% of price. Hold to see if it fills or reverses. Stop trails at 287.16."
    },
    {
      "subject": "NBIS",
      "text": "Target 145 reached ~98% of price. Hold to see if it fills or reverses. Stop at 129.48."
    },
    {
      "subject": "PTC",
      "text": "Trend core intact. Monitor for a daily close below 50-day avg."
    },
    {
      "subject": "U",
      "text": "Trend core intact. Monitor for a daily close below 50-day avg."
    },
    {
      "subject": "MPC, PSX, RVMD, SPY, USO, VLO",
      "text": "Long-term book positions. All above 200-day averages. Hold until a week closes below 200-day avg or news breaks thesis."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "All positions held; no exits triggered. PRAX and NBIS are near their targets (340 and 145), so I will let them run into tomorrow to see if they fill or reverse. TREND CORE positions (PTC, U) remain safely above their 50-day averages. Set watches for both targets at tomorrow's open."
}