Episode · MPC · Nov 13, 3:04 PM

NOW: 2026-11-13T20:04Z

WOKE FOR: MPC (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:04Z price, P2, salience 75: MPC, which you hold, moved 7.42% since your last review at 383.85; stop 380.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $234.75 · equity $10298.61 (+2.99%) · today -0.86% · 12 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.03 (0.03%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.815 (1.11%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- LVS: 63 shares at 40.22, now 40.185 (-0.06%), stop 39.5, target 42.5, multi_day horizon, opened 10:13 AM ET. Thesis: LVS shows a strong opening-range breakout (40.23 > 40.15) on 5.8× median volume, indicating institutional interest. While there is no fundamental catalyst in our feeds, the price action is clean and the volume is significant. The T1 anomalies in the last 24h suggest active trading interest. The opening range low (39.5) provides a tight, logical stop. The daily trend is up, and the move has room to the next resistance. Invalidation: Close below 39.5 (opening range low). Invalidation: Close below 39.5 (opening range low)
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 412.33 (7.43%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 182.04 (-1.34%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 263.4 (5.91%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.21 (0.45%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RPRX: 2 shares at 69.16, now 69.115 (-0.07%), stop 68.17, target 72.5, multi_day horizon, opened 1:55 PM ET. Thesis: RPRX closed at 69.14, breaking its 15-min opening range high (68.90) on 5.7× median volume. The stock is in a strong daily uptrend (price 12.4% above SMA50, 26.6% above SMA200) and is testing its 52-week high (70.34). The T1 anomaly at 9:42 AM ET shows a sharp, unexplained dip followed by a recovery, indicating active trading interest and resilience. With no liquid options available, shares are the instrument. The opening range low (68.17) provides a tight, logical stop. Target 72.50 offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 68.17. Invalidation: Close below 68.17 (opening range low) or news breaking the trend.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 753.425 (0.77%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- TOST: 52 shares at 34.47, now 34.845 (1.06%), stop 33.58, target 36.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: TOST is in a strong daily uptrend (above SMA20/50/200), with price breaking the 15-min opening range (33.58-34.24) on 4.1× median volume. The move is clean with no news, but the volume and technical structure are strong. Stop at the opening range low (33.58) provides a tight, logical invalidation. Target 36.50 (near 52-week high) offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 33.58. Invalidation: Close below 33.58 (opening range low)
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 145.37 (1.14%), stop 117.32, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 378.435 (7.41%), stop 302.19, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: blocked by your envelope (4/4 open).
- Your envelope: 5/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2574.65). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 6/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $28.78 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2575); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and … [cut: 11,228 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "MPC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 412.33 is up 7.43% from entry, comfortably above the trailing stop. The Mizuho PT cut to $440 still implies upside from current levels, and the long-term thesis (weekly close below 200-day average) remains intact. Volume shock and price action show institutional interest. Market is slightly soft, but MPC's momentum holds.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 412.33, entry 383.85, stop 380, target 448.67",
        "Mizuho maintained coverage, PT lowered to $440 (still above current price)",
        "T1 volume shock +1.3% on 6.5× median volume",
        "Weekly close rule intact; no fundamental catalyst breaks the long-term case"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "MPC is up 7.4% and holding its long-term thesis intact despite a softer market. The Mizuho PT cut to $440 still leaves upside, and the weekly-close-below-200-day rule remains the only exit trigger. I'm holding through the close."
}