Episode · the market · Nov 9, 11:17 AM

NOW: 2026-11-09T16:17Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:13Z setup, P1, salience 86: MYRG new session high: closed 274.99 above 274.39 on 15.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 272.04-272.04.
- 16:13Z setup, P1, salience 80: VONG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 117.96 above 116.87 on 3.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 116.58-116.87.
- 16:13Z setup, P1, salience 71: PFG new session high: closed 114.88 above 114.51 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 113.07-113.52.
- 16:13Z setup, P1, salience 66: AEP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 127.265 above 126.85 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 126.27-126.85.
- 16:15Z setup, P1, salience 86: SNY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 47.925 above 47.88 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 47.57-47.88.
- 16:16Z setup, P1, salience 76: FDXF new session high: closed 128.24 above 127.47 on 3.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 125.14-125.68.
- 16:16Z setup, P1, salience 75: UNG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 9.95 above 9.94 on 3.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 9.88-9.94.
- 16:16Z setup, P1, salience 65: FTV new session high: closed 67.17 above 67.1 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 66.01-66.56.
- 16:17Z setup, P1, salience 95: MF new session high: closed 25.13 above 22.51 on 15.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 16.85-17.25.
- 16:17Z setup, P1, salience 62: CRS new session high: closed 297.29 above 296.88 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 286.66-291.96.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $10025.04 (+0.25%) · today +1.23% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 105.81 (2.00%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 390.54 (1.76%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 139.36 (1.64%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 309.98 (2.15%), stop 281.67, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 281.67.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.025 (1.30%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.585 (0.09%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 197.76 (-0.60%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 750.355 (0.35%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 52.03 (-1.60%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 144.05 (0.15%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 356.385 (1.02%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the… [cut: 13,019 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "It is 16:17Z, past the closing window. The brief flags P1 opportunities (breakouts), but my rules prohibit new entries in the closing window (only overnight/multi-day passes, and these are intraday momentum moves without confirmed catalysts). I hold 11 stocks with no exits triggered. Cash is low. I will do nothing."
}