Episode · the market · Nov 12, 9:52 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:52Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 91: MOD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 106.55 above 105.33 on 23.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 102.02-105.33.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 88: ZSL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 38.275 above 38.03 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 37.84-38.03.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 88: MRNA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 242.115 above 240.73 on 5.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 233.08-240.73.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 86: RXO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 28.44 above 28.4 on 5.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 28.31-28.4.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 86: NVT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 113.645 above 113.46 on 6.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 111.51-113.46.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1913.32 · equity $10428.37 (+4.28%) · today -0.76% · 9 stocks, 0 options positions
- FRVO: 147 shares at 12.58, now 12.53 (-0.40%), stop 11.94, target 14.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio. Invalidation: Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 408.44 (6.40%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 260.97 (4.90%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.095 (0.43%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 758.415 (1.44%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 49.11 (-7.29%), stop 47.67, target 49.35, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average (if I were to re-enter, but I am exiting).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.88 (-1.20%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.135 (5.08%), stop 12.67, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 368.11 (4.44%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 2/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2607.09). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $1704.75 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2607); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 758.27 (-0.2%), QQQ 687.185 (-0.47%), IWM 280.985, DIA 525.06, VIXY 17.275, TLT 80.51

SUBJECT MOD
- 106.55; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT ZSL
- 38.275; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT MRNA
- 240; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT RXO
- 28.44; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT NVT
- 113.645; technicals: use the tools
- n… [cut: 9,304 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "No new entries: all five setups (MOD, ZSL, MRNA, RXO, NVT) lack news catalysts and are late-session breakouts (14:52Z) with no fundamental backing. Book positions are stable and within limits; no exits required."
}