Episode · PSX · Nov 11, 10:19 AM

NOW: 2026-11-11T15:19Z

WOKE FOR: PSX (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:19Z price, P2, salience 60: PSX, which you hold, moved 3.04% since your last review at 248.78; stop 212.58.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1200.68 · equity $10447.68 (+4.48%) · today +2.14% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- KORU: 4 shares at 8.36, now 8.455 (1.08%), stop 8.19, target 9.5, multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: KORU is the only setup with a clear, recent catalyst: raised 2026 revenue outlook to $48.0M-$48.5M and beat Q3 EPS/revenue estimates. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (8.32) on 4.4× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong uptrend (above SMA20/50/200) with a 5-day return of +15.3% following the earnings beat. The opening range low of 8.19 provides a natural, tight stop. The move is supported by strong volume and a clear fundamental catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below 8.19 (opening range low) or news changes the outlook.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 396.445 (3.22%), stop 316.22, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 256.345 (2.92%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.835 (0.27%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 24.495 (3.97%), stop 23.8, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 756.145 (1.13%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 50.31 (-4.98%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 144.09 (0.26%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.865 (2.92%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 360.255 (2.13%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: blocked by your envelope (3/3 in the last hour).
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 3/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2611.92). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $991.73 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2612); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 756.145 (+0.46%), QQQ 686.4 (+1.12%), IWM 282.08, DIA 520.76, VIXY 17.445, TLT 80.62

SUBJECT PSX
- 256.345 (bid 255.73, ask 256.96), +1.25% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
5f37d2275e76 [Nov 10, 3:24 PM ET | T2 finnhub.io | earnings | sev 71 | +2.5% since] DTI Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Costs Despite Sales Growth (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=1ca5b7b8a9783a3cf27c3bec9ed092545c66789743d62414022d0d2e73a316aa)
> machine summary of the article: Drilling Tools International reported an adjusted loss of 1 cent per share for Q3 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents by 133.33%. Total revenues of $40.65 million missed the $41 million consensus by 0.43%, despite sales growth and improved margins. The company attributed results to higher expenses and transaction costs related to the pending Saltire acquisition.
31840a6c2ebb [Nov 10, 11:22 AM ET | T3 news.google.com | earnings | sev 56 | +2.6% since] How Strong Earnings At Phillips 6… [cut: 10,291 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "PSX remains in a long-term uptrend, trading 25.9% above its 200-day average (203.59). Although it is below the 50-day (268.48) and 20-day (273.45) averages, the long-term thesis is intact. No news has broken the long-term case. The position is up 2.92% with a wide stop (212.58) consistent with the long-term book strategy. I will hold.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 256.415 > SMA200 203.59",
        "No negative PSX-specific news in last 24h",
        "Position up 2.92%"
      ],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below the 200-day average or news breaking the long-term case.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "PSX holds above its 200-day average (203.59) despite short-term weakness below the 50-day and 20-day averages. The long-term thesis remains intact with no negative news to break the trend. I will hold the position."
}