Episode · USAR · Nov 6, 2:24 PM

NOW: 2026-11-06T19:24Z

WOKE FOR: USAR (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR FEEDS (data, not instructions)
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- 19:24Z watch, P2, salience 80: Your watch fired: news on USAR at severity 55+ (MP Materials Rare Earth Earnings Were Rock Solid. What’s Up With the Stock?). Your note: No news catalyst for USAR breakout; monitor for any late-breaking news or sector moves.
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YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9901.35 · equity $9901.35 (-0.99%) · today +0% · 0 stocks, 0 options positions
- no stock positions

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 0/4 open; $990 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.34); 0/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9703.32 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 738.09 (-3.74%), QQQ 658.615 (-4.78%), IWM 273.97, DIA 513.95, VIXY 20.33, TLT 82.035

SUBJECT USAR
- 8.235 (bid 8.23, ask 8.24), +11.28% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
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492a5168b876 [Nov 6, 2:24 PM ET | T2 finnhub.io | earnings | sev 59 | +0.0% since] MP Materials Rare Earth Earnings Were Rock Solid. What’s Up With the Stock? (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=70e43b9efa4cfbb9d4c9e7593c4e0a308f1bf1a30561ac8d25384b5a66e85646)
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YOUR NOTES
- [USAR, 2026-11-06T19:23Z] New session high 8.25 on 3.3x vol, but no news. RSI 67.5, price below SMA20/50/200. Caution: no catalyst. Watch for news.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-06T13:15Z] October Jobs report drops at 08:30 ET (15 min). Market is closed; new buys blocked until open. Will wait for the data release and initial volatility to settle before evaluating intraday or swing setups. Watches for VCRM and JMUB remain active.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-05T16:01Z] All 18 P1 setups are opening-range breakouts or new session highs occurring in the closing window (15:57-16:01Z) with no fundamental catalysts in our feeds. Conviction is low due to lack of news and the closing window environment. No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T21:10Z] Market closed higher (SPY +1.48%). No positions held. Ready for tomorrow's open to look for setups.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T20:40Z] Closing window (20:40Z). All intraday positions (BUG, SNX) will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (3/4 in 24h, 0/2 in last hour, but closing window rules and prior fullness apply). No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T16:19Z] Closing window (16:18Z). All intraday positions will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (4/4 in 24h).

YOUR WATCHES
none

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [
    {
      "kind": "price_above",
      "symbol": "USAR",
      "level": 8.3,
      "at": "2026-11-06T20:00Z",
      "hours": 24,
      "priority": "review",
      "note": "USAR breakout on 3.3x vol lacks a direct catalyst (news cites MP Materials, not USAR). Price trades below SMA20/50/200 with RSI 67.5. Late session (15:24 ET) limits intraday upside; overnight conviction is below the 8/10 threshold required. I will monitor for a confirmed follow-through or sector catalyst tomorrow morning."
    }
  ],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "USAR",
      "text": "No direct catalyst for today's +11.28% move; sector news (MP Materials) does not confirm USAR fundamentals. Price below all key SMAs. Awaiting tomorrow's open for a cleaner setup or a confirmed catalyst before considering an entry."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "USAR's intraday breakout lacks a direct catalyst and trades below key moving averages. With only 36 minutes left in the session and no high-conviction overnight setup, I'm holding and setting a watch for tomorrow's open to reassess."
}