Episode · VLO · Nov 11, 3:20 PM

NOW: 2026-11-11T20:20Z

WOKE FOR: VLO (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:20Z price, P2, salience 60: VLO, which you hold, moved 3.03% since your last review at 352.24; stop 300.25.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $216.14 · equity $10481.14 (+4.81%) · today +2.47% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- ABT: 1 shares at 110.12, now 109.89 (-0.16%), stop 109.1, target 115, multi_day horizon, opened 1:02 PM ET. Thesis: ABT broke above its 15-min opening range high (110.04) on 2.2× median volume, closing at 110.17. The move is supported by a T2 catalyst: FDA approval and CE Mark for a new implantable cardioverter-defibrillator lead (Nov 11, 6:33 AM ET). Technically, ABT is in a strong uptrend (above SMA20/50/200) with RSI 58.4 and room to the 52-week high (132.03). The opening range low (109.1) provides a natural stop. Target 115.0 offers ~4.4% upside vs ~1% risk. Invalidation: Price closes below 109.1 (opening range low) or news reverses the FDA approval narrative.
- KRMN: 59 shares at 44.04, now 44.44 (0.84%), stop 43.39, target 48, multi_day horizon, opened 12:45 PM ET. Thesis: KRMN closed at 44.03, breaking above its 15-min opening range high of 43.74 on 6.5× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (above SMA20/50) with a 5-day return of +28.87% and RSI 60.6. The move is supported by heavy volume and a clear technical breakout. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 43.39. Invalidation: Price closes below 43.39 (opening range low)
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 399.285 (4.03%), stop 318.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 257.44 (3.51%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.07 (0.38%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SCHE: 28 shares at 35.22, now 35.175 (-0.13%), stop 34.5, target 38, multi_day horizon, opened 10:52 AM ET. Thesis: SCHE broke above its 15-min opening range high (35.15) on 15.5× median volume, closing at 35.21. This is a strong technical breakout with heavy volume. No recent news in our feeds, so the move is purely technical/flow-driven. The setup is strong enough to warrant a trade based on momentum and volume. Entry: 35.21. Stop: 34.50 (below the opening range low of 35.09 and providing a ~2% risk). Target: 38.00 (approx 8% upside, R:R ~4:1). Invalidation: Price closes below 34.50 (opening range low area).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 760.115 (1.67%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 50.035 (-5.53%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.41 (-1.56%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.635 (1.08%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 362.92 (3.04%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: blocked by your envelope (4/4 open).
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2620.29). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 6/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $6.52 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2620); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 760.115 (+0.98%), QQQ 691.12 (+1.82%), IWM 282.855, DIA 524.45, VIXY 16.96, TLT 80.895

SUBJECT VLO
- 362.92 (bid 341, ask 378.09), +1.72% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<unt… [cut: 10,518 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "vwap_reclaim",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "VLO is a long-term book position held above its 200-day average (292.81). The thesis requires holding until a weekly close below the 200-day average or bearish news. Price (362.92) is well above the 200-day average and recovering from the 20-day range low (342). No news breaks the long-term case. The stop at 300.25 remains valid.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average (292.81) or news breaking the long-term case.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "VLO is up 3% and remains above its 200-day average, consistent with the long-term book thesis. No news breaks the case, so I hold."
}