Episode · the market · Nov 13, 9:51 AM

NOW: 2026-11-13T14:51Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: SAP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 236.39 above 236.12 on 18.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 234.75-236.12.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 72: FIG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 19.3 above 19.22 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 18.92-19.22.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 69: SHOP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 150.135 above 149.5 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 146.82-149.5.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 67: BIDU opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 77.75 above 77.56 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 76.58-77.56.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 67: CPNG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 15.44 above 15.42 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 15.17-15.42.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 93: FCUV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 7.05 above 6.34 on 4.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.49-6.34.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 70: PDD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 78.49 above 78.3 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 77.16-78.3.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 63: GME opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 26.33 above 26.28 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 25.91-26.28.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 86: U opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 51.01 above 50.92 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 49.9-50.92.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 71: TEAM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 155.46 above 154.4 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 151.77-154.4.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 66: META opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 636.585 above 634.13 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 626.21-634.13.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 86: RWM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 14.475 above 14.46 on 5.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 14.4-14.46.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 86: O opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 59.42 above 59.32 on 5.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 59.05-59.32.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 72: SOXS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 50.18 above 49.38 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 46.39-49.38.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 72: SSPC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.59 above 8.56 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.43-8.56.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 66: EW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 106.89 above 106.74 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 106.11-106.74.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: SPDN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.61 above 8.6 on 6.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.56-8.6.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: VRSN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 315.74 above 315.06 on 5.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 313.81-315.06.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: PSQ opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 26.86 above 26.78 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 26.63-26.78.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: TLH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 93.6 above 93.5 on 6.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 93.41-93.5.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 85: SDS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 55.75 above 55.52 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 55-55.52.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $218.03 · equity $10303.10 (+3.03%) · today -0.81% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.04 (0.03%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.635 (0.44%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 404.115 (5.25%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 181.62 (-2.08%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 260.47 (4.59%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.28 (0.46%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 754.905 (0.95%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- TOST: 52 shares at 34.47, now 34.36 (-0.39%), stop 33.58, target 36.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: TOST is in a strong daily uptrend (above SMA20/50/200), with price breaking the 15-min opening range (33.58-34.24) on 4.1× median volume. The move is clean with no news, but the volume and technical structure are strong. Stop at the opening range low (33.58) provides a tight, logical invalidation. Target 36.50 (near 52-week high) offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 33.58. Invalidation: Close below 33.58 (opening range low)
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 146.69 (1.88%), stop 117.32, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day avera… [cut: 16,519 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "The market is softening (SPY -0.66%, QQQ -1.27%) and the setups are late (14:47-14:51 ET). Most have no news to support the breakouts, and the ones that do (FCUV, U) are either halted or unconfirmed anomalies. With only $11.97 cash and a weak market backdrop, I am holding all positions and skipping new entries."
}