Episode · U · Nov 10, 9:30 AM

NOW: 2026-11-10T14:30Z

WOKE FOR: U (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:30Z price, P0, salience 64: U, which you hold, moved -4.19% since your last review at 52.97; stop 47.67.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $2831.47 · equity $10109.23 (+1.09%) · today -1.07% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 380.79 (-0.22%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 139.18 (0.37%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 329.98 (8.51%), stop 310.39, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 246.3 (-1.27%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.87 (0.29%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 198 (-0.61%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 748.925 (0.07%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 50.8 (-4.13%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 138.65 (-3.56%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 347.98 (-1.63%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET). New buys: blocked (inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET)).
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2527.31). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2629.29 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2527); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 748.925 (-0.5%), QQQ 673.525 (-0.77%), IWM 279.8, DIA 521.61, VIXY 18.86, TLT 81.12

SUBJECT U
- 50.8 (bid 48.2, ask 53.47), -1.2% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
eeb582158434 [Nov 9, 10:04 AM ET | T2 finance.yahoo.com | m and a | sev 84 | -3.4% since] Unity shares jump on report of takeover interest from Silver Lake, PIF (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/unity-shares-jump-report-takeover-005227947.html?.tsrc=rss)
23690481e621 [Nov 9, 10:01 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 79 | +1 confirmations | -3.6% since] Unity Software (U) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/unity… [cut: 9,966 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "U",
      "action": "sell",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "U dropped -4.19% from the last review (52.97 -> 50.80) and is now at 51.06. The trend core thesis relies on the stock staying above its 50-day average (42.65) and trailing stop (47.67). While still above these levels, the sharp decline on heavy volume (implied by the move) and the lack of new positive catalysts (news is mixed: takeover rumor from Nov 9, earnings beat but price fell) suggests the immediate momentum is broken. The stop is 47.67, which is 6.7% below current price. Given the -4% drop and the risk of further downside in a trend core position, it is prudent to sell and preserve capital. The invalidation rule is 'close below 50-day average' or 'trailing stop'. The price has not closed below the 50-day average yet, but the sharp drop warrants a proactive exit to avoid a potential stop-out at a worse price or a trend break. The takeover rumor was from Nov 9 and did not sustain the price. The earnings beat was also not enough to hold the price up. The risk/reward is poor for holding.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 51.06, down -4.19% from 52.97.",
        "50-day average 42.65, 200-day 31.75.",
        "News: Takeover rumor (Nov 9), Earnings beat (Nov 9) but price fell.",
        "Stop 47.67."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 50-day average (42.65) or trailing stop (47.67). Current price is approaching the stop, and the momentum is negative.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Sold U at 51.06 due to a sharp -4.19% drop and broken momentum, despite being above the 50-day average and trailing stop. The takeover rumor and earnings beat failed to sustain the price, and the risk of further decline warranted an exit."
}