Episode · the market · Nov 9, 1:42 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T18:42Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 18:38Z setup, P1, salience 66: MKSI new session high: closed 211.09 above 210.81 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 197.95-204.29.
- 18:38Z setup, P1, salience 64: FNF opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 44.72 above 44.62 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 44.08-44.62.
- 18:39Z setup, P1, salience 86: RHI new session high: closed 41.89 above 41.82 on 6.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 41.54-41.54.
- 18:39Z setup, P1, salience 67: AOS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 65.435 above 65.34 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 64.61-65.34.
- 18:39Z setup, P1, salience 62: VOE new session high: closed 212.01 above 211.6 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 208.44-209.55.
- 18:40Z setup, P1, salience 86: EXC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 45.875 above 45.78 on 5.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 45.37-45.78.
- 18:40Z setup, P1, salience 86: INVH new session high: closed 27.38 above 27.35 on 11.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 27.12-27.3.
- 18:40Z setup, P1, salience 73: CSGP new session high: closed 31.22 above 31.14 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 30.25-30.53.
- 18:40Z setup, P1, salience 71: GL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 161 above 159.64 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 159-159.64.
- 18:40Z setup, P1, salience 70: CELC new session high: closed 71.085 above 70.88 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 68.72-68.72.
- 18:41Z setup, P1, salience 81: DXCM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 80.805 above 80.57 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 79.93-80.57.
- 18:41Z setup, P1, salience 73: DTE new session high: closed 139.73 above 139.59 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 136.62-136.91.
- 18:42Z setup, P1, salience 62: PFGC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 111.585 above 111.44 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 110.26-111.44.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $10071.24 (+0.71%) · today +1.7% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 106.91 (3.15%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 388.56 (1.23%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 139.575 (1.93%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 312.93 (2.70%), stop 287.16, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.12 (1.34%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.855 (0.30%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 198.55 (-0.22%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 752.4 (0.63%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 52.09 (-1.68%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 143.94 (0.14%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 3… [cut: 13,518 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "MARKET",
      "text": "Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. All observed setups (MKSI, FNF, RHI, AOS, VOE, EXC, INVH, CSGP, GL, CELC, DXCM, DTE, PFGC) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 11 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $239.54."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Closing window is active; no new entries allowed. All observed setups are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts. Book holds 11 stocks with no exits triggered."
}