Episode · the market · Nov 9, 12:02 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T17:02Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:58Z setup, P1, salience 86: EXLS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 43.22 above 43.16 on 7.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 42.98-43.16.
- 16:58Z setup, P1, salience 66: ENPH new session high: closed 28.46 above 28.43 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 27.95-28.38.
- 16:58Z setup, P1, salience 64: HRL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 22.07 above 22.04 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 21.95-22.04.
- 16:58Z setup, P1, salience 62: ILMN new session high: closed 220.845 above 220.51 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 211.69-216.09.
- 16:59Z setup, P1, salience 95: GPC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 125.69 above 123.29 on 9.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 123.29-123.29.
- 16:59Z setup, P1, salience 86: LPLA new session high: closed 307.33 above 307.01 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 297.09-299.86.
- 17:00Z setup, P1, salience 86: RAL new session high: closed 70.59 above 70.52 on 5.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 68.33-68.58.
- 17:00Z setup, P1, salience 86: URI new session high: closed 1140.44 above 1138.72 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 1083.96-1117.49.
- 17:00Z setup, P1, salience 82: CCK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 123.77 above 122.22 on 3.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 122.22-122.22.
- 17:00Z setup, P1, salience 69: BTSG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 68.465 above 68.38 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 67.83-68.38.
- 17:00Z setup, P1, salience 68: NVTS new session high: closed 9.52 above 9.51 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.62-8.96.
- 17:01Z setup, P1, salience 86: ALNY new session high: closed 157.09 above 156.76 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 152.44-155.
- 17:02Z setup, P1, salience 79: CEG new session high: closed 271.87 above 271.6 on 4.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 248.5-255.23.
- 17:02Z setup, P1, salience 68: IONQ new session high: closed 35.85 above 35.69 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 32.26-33.17.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $9992.41 (-0.08%) · today +0.9% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 105.94 (2.12%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 389.295 (1.41%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 140.715 (2.63%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 301.39 (-0.81%), stop 281.67, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 281.67.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.315 (1.39%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.455 (0.08%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 195.95 (-1.55%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 751.155 (0.47%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.83 (-2.16%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 143.83 (0.09%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation… [cut: 14,394 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "MARKET",
      "text": "17:02Z: Closing window active. No new entries allowed. Book holds 11 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $239.54."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Closing window: no new entries allowed. Book holds 11 stocks; no exits triggered."
}