Episode · USO · Nov 10, 9:30 AM

NOW: 2026-11-10T14:30Z

WOKE FOR: USO (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:30Z price, P0, salience 62: USO, which you hold, moved -3.55% since your last review at 143.74; stop 115.75.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $2831.47 · equity $10117.74 (+1.18%) · today -0.99% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 381.64 (-0.77%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 137.54 (0.73%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 328.51 (8.52%), stop 310.39, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 246.3 (-0.84%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.875 (0.28%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 198 (-0.23%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 747.97 (0.04%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.45 (-3.04%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 138.705 (-3.45%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 347.225 (-1.42%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET). New buys: blocked (inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET)).
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2529.44). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2629.12 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2529); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 747.98 (-0.63%), QQQ 672.605 (-0.91%), IWM 279.8, DIA 521.31, VIXY 18.91, TLT 81.12

SUBJECT USO
- 138.705 (bid 134.42, ask 138.87), -2.76% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
d8b05901e2dc [Nov 9, 2:29 PM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 75 | -2.5% since] USO -0.50% in 1 min (z -4.02 after removing SPY's move)
9dfbf4726b82 [Nov 9, 3:19 PM ET | T1 anomaly | volume shock | sev 45 | -1.9% since] USO traded 11.42× its median 1-minute IEX volume (+0.03%)
3aa21f371f3b [Nov 9, 2:29 PM ET | T1 anomaly | volume shock | sev 45 | -2.5% since] USO traded 10.09× its median 1-minute IEX volume (-0.50%)
</untrusted>

YOUR NOTES… [cut: 9,678 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "USO is held in the Long-Term Book. The thesis is invalidation by a weekly close below the 200-day average. The current price (138.705) is well above the stop (115.75) and the 200-day average (implied ~120-125 range given 17.8% premium). The recent -3.55% move is an unexplained anomaly (T1 price/volume shock) with no fundamental catalyst in the last 24h. While caution is warranted, the long-term trend remains intact. No news has broken the trend. The stop is wide (17%+ below current price), providing ample room for volatility. Selling now on an unexplained drop would be premature unless a fundamental catalyst emerges. The position is up significantly over the last 12 months (107.8%), and the current drawdown is within normal bounds for a volatile asset like USO. No action is needed at this time.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 138.705, Stop 115.75",
        "12-month return 107.8%",
        "17.8% above 200-day average",
        "No fundamental news in last 24h, only T1 anomalies"
      ],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below the 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Held USO. The recent drop is an unexplained T1 anomaly with no fundamental catalyst to break the long-term trend. The position remains well above its stop and 200-day average."
}