Episode · the market · Oct 29, 12:45 PM

NOW: 2026-10-29T16:45Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 86: IBIT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 46.035 above 45.93 on 6.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 45.93-45.93.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 86: WTRG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 42.6 above 42.48 on 6× its median minute volume today; opening range 42.48-42.48.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 74: EWY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 161.19 above 160.93 on 3.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 160.93-160.93.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 72: EWT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 105.8 above 105.65 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 105.65-105.65.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 70: PINS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 20.525 above 20.47 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 20.47-20.47.

YOUR BOOK (shadow; started with $10,000)
cash $10000.00 · equity $10000.00 (+0%) · today +0% · realized $0.00 · 0 open, 0 closed
- no open positions

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 0/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 0/4 open; $1000 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2500); 0/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9800 deployable cash.
- Intraday positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session. Trades fill at the ask or bid plus 5 bps, commission-free. Options are traded only at level auto.

MARKET
- SPY 769.155 (-0.4%), QQQ 715.335 (-1.41%), IWM 284.29 (+1.06%), DIA 522.165 (-0.47%), VIXY 16.725, TLT 81.28

SUBJECT IBIT
- 46.035; technicals and news: use the tools

SUBJECT WTRG
- 42.6; technicals and news: use the tools

SUBJECT EWY
- 161.19; technicals and news: use the tools

SUBJECT EWT
- 105.8; technicals and news: use the tools

SUBJECT PINS
- 20.525; technicals and news: use the tools

YOUR NOTES
none

YOUR WATCHES
none

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "IBIT",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 44.88,
      "take_profit": 48.5,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "IBIT broke above its 15-minute opening range high (45.93) on 6.4x median volume, closing at 46.035. Price is above SMA50 (45.84) and VWAP (45.91), with RSI at 54.2 (neutral-bullish). Entry at 46.04 (ask + 5bps). Stop at 44.88 (2.5% below entry, below SMA20 46.68? No, SMA20 is resistance. Stop below today's low 45.15? No, 44.88 is 2.5% below 46.04. Wait, 46.04 * 0.975 = 44.89. Let's use 44.89. Target 48.50 is ~5.3% gain. R:R ~2.1. Conviction 7 due to volume and clean breakout above OR high. Note: SMA20 is above current price, acting as resistance, but breakout cleared OR high. Need to watch for rejection at SMA20.",
      "evidence": [
        "OR High: 45.93",
        "Close: 46.035",
        "Volume: 6.4x median",
        "SMA20: 46.68 (Resistance)",
        "SMA50: 45.84 (Support)",
        "VWAP: 45.91"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 45.93 (OR High) or 45.84 (SMA50).",
      "structure_id": "IBIT_breakout_102926",
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WTRG",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 41.5,
      "take_profit": 44.5,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "WTRG broke above its 15-minute opening range high (42.48) on 6x median volume, closing at 42.60. Price is above SMA20 (40.56), SMA50 (40.68), and SMA200 (39.39), indicating a strong uptrend. RSI at 64 (bullish). Entry at 42.60 (ask + 5bps). Stop at 41.50 (2.6% below entry). Target 44.50 is ~4.5% gain. R:R ~1.7. Conviction 6 due to strong trend and volume, but note the intraday high was 43.03, so upside is limited by the day's high. The breakout was from 42.48, but the price is already near the day's high.",
      "evidence": [
        "OR High: 42.48",
        "Close: 42.60",
        "Volume: 6x median",
        "SMA20: 40.56",
        "SMA50: 40.68",
        "SMA200: 39.39",
        "Day High: 43.03"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 42.48 (OR High) or 42.26 (OR Low).",
      "structure_id": "WTRG_breakout_102926",
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "IBIT",
      "text": "Breakout from 15-min OR (45.93). Watch for rejection at SMA20 (46.68). Stop 44.89."
    },
    {
      "subject": "WTRG",
      "text": "Breakout from 15-min OR (42.48). Strong trend above SMAs. Day high 43.03 limits upside. Stop 41.50."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Bought IBIT and WTRG on opening-range breakouts with heavy volume. IBIT cleared 45.93 on 6.4x vol; WTRG cleared 42.48 on 6x vol. Both have defined stops and targets for intraday profit-taking."
}