Episode · MPC · Nov 10, 9:47 AM

NOW: 2026-11-10T14:47Z

WOKE FOR: MPC (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR FEEDS (data, not instructions)
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- 14:47Z news, P0, salience 76: held shock (price_shock, severity 76, anomaly): MPC +0.58% in 1 min (z 4.1 after removing SPY's move)
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YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $204.84 · equity $10139.27 (+1.39%) · today -0.77% · 12 stocks, 0 options positions
- HDB: 4 shares at 26.16, now 26.145 (0.00%), stop 26.04, target 27.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Good setup: price above SMA20/50/200, strong 5d/20d momentum, breakout on volume. RSI 75.4 is high but trend is strong. Opening range low 26.04 provides stop. Reward 5% vs risk 0.6% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 26.04.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 381.595 (-0.59%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 139.94 (2.32%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 328.785 (8.12%), stop 310.39, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below 310.39.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 247.265 (-0.69%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.95 (0.35%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 195.79 (-1.50%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 23.625 (0.32%), stop 22.66, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 748.31 (0.12%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 50.9 (-3.82%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 139.785 (-2.80%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 345.34 (-2.05%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: blocked by your envelope (4/4 open).
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 2/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2534.82). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 6/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2.05 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2535); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARK… [cut: 10,827 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "MPC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 312.05,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "MPC is a long-term leader held in the book. The recent price shocks (T1 anomalies) were minor dips absorbed by buyers, indicating resilience. The thesis relies on the long-term trend (price well above 200-day average) and the rule-managed stop at 312.05. No news breaks the long-term case. The current price action is within normal volatility for this stock. Hold as per book rules.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 381.595, 25.9% above 200-day average.",
        "T1 price shock on Nov 9 was a minor -0.63% dip with no follow-through.",
        "T1 price shock on Nov 10 was a minor +0.58% move.",
        "Long-term book thesis: held until a week closes below 200-day average."
      ],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below the 200-day average or news that breaks the long-term case.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "MPC showed minor T1 price shocks but absorbed them, confirming resilience. The long-term thesis remains intact with price well above the 200-day average. No new entries are allowed in the closing window, and no exits are triggered. Holding MPC as per book rules."
}