Episode · the market · Oct 29, 3:50 PM
It is 19:50Z ET, well past the close. The screen flagged numerous opening-range breakouts (NET, ORLY, RGLD, etc.) that occurred earlier today. As the closing window has passed, new intraday buys are no longer viable, and overnight buys require conviction ≥ 8, which these unconfirmed breakouts lack. I am holding my existing positions (AHR, DIA, EPD, IWM, SOFI, SPY, TEVA) and will manage them at the open. No new trades are executed.
Why it woke
- 3:46:17 PM setup P1 · 88 NET opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 306.13 above 304.31 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 304.31-304.31.
- 3:46:17 PM setup P1 · 86 ORLY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 88.635 above 88.49 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 88.49-88.49.
- 3:46:17 PM setup P1 · 86 RGLD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 236.72 above 236.09 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 236.09-236.09.
- 3:46:17 PM setup P1 · 86 ALC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 71.13 above 71.03 on 9.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 71.03-71.03.
- 3:46:17 PM setup P1 · 86 UL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 64.255 above 64.15 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 64.15-64.15.
- 3:47:17 PM setup P1 · 86 VMC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 281.18 above 280.54 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 280.54-280.54.
- 3:47:17 PM setup P1 · 86 CPRT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 29.57 above 29.52 on 12.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 29.52-29.52.
- 3:47:17 PM setup P1 · 86 AGG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 96.195 above 96.1 on 21.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 96.1-96.1.
- 3:47:17 PM setup P1 · 81 ATO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 171.18 above 170.95 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 170.95-170.95.
- 3:47:17 PM setup P1 · 77 SYY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 82.65 above 82.55 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 82.55-82.55.
- 3:48:17 PM setup P1 · 86 MCK new session high: closed 977.78 above 975.56 on 7.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 971.58-971.58.
- 3:48:17 PM setup P1 · 86 DHI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 144.94 above 144.69 on 12.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 144.69-144.69.
- 3:48:17 PM setup P1 · 84 USMV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 102.92 above 102.78 on 4.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 102.78-102.78.
- 3:48:17 PM setup P1 · 81 ISRG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 448.76 above 448.28 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 448.28-448.28.
- 3:48:17 PM setup P1 · 81 AMBA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 64.235 above 64 on 4.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 64-64.
- 3:49:17 PM setup P1 · 86 TRGP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 310.48 above 309.97 on 7.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 309.97-309.97.
- 3:49:17 PM setup P1 · 78 AWK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 141.16 above 140.69 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 140.69-140.69.
- 3:49:17 PM setup P1 · 72 GFL new session high: closed 44.935 above 44.87 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 44.62-44.62.
- 3:49:17 PM setup P1 · 71 DVA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 193.03 above 192.14 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 192.14-192.14.
- 3:49:17 PM setup P1 · 69 AER opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 159.46 above 159.21 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 159.21-159.21.
- 3:50:17 PM setup P1 · 87 SSPC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.84 above 8.81 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.81-8.81.
- 3:50:17 PM setup P1 · 86 TRGP new session high: closed 310.865 above 310.48 on 7.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 309.97-309.97.
- 3:50:17 PM setup P1 · 86 AVDE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 90.135 above 90.02 on 14.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 90.02-90.02.
- 3:50:17 PM setup P1 · 84 AWK new session high: closed 141.33 above 141.18 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 140.69-140.69.
- 3:50:17 PM setup P1 · 84 SCHB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 29.565 above 29.52 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 29.52-29.52.
Steps
1. Answered
10.0 s · 8141 in (1800 cached) · 143 out · 55 tok/s
What came of it
It is 19:50Z ET, well past the close. The screen flagged numerous opening-range breakouts (NET, ORLY, RGLD, etc.) that occurred earlier today. As the closing window has passed, new intraday buys are no longer viable, and overnight buys require conviction ≥ 8, which these unconfirmed breakouts lack. I am holding my existing positions (AHR, DIA, EPD, IWM, SOFI, SPY, TEVA) and will manage them at the open. No new trades are executed.
No decisions.
The brief it got
NOW: 2026-10-29T19:50Z WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity) OBSERVATIONS - 19:46Z setup, P1, salience 88: NET opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 306.13 above 304.31 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 304.31-304.31. - 19:46Z setup, P1, salience 86: ORLY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 88.635 above 88.49 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 88.49-88.49. - 19:46Z setup, P1, salience 86: RGLD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 236.72 above 236.09 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 236.09-236.09. - 19:46Z setup, P1, salience 86: ALC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 71.13 above 71.03 on 9.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 71.03-71.03. - 19:46Z setup, P1, salience 86: UL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 64.255 above 64.15 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 64.15-64.15. - 19:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: VMC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 281.18 above 280.54 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 280.54-280.54. - 19:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: CPRT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 29.57 above 29.52 on 12.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 29.52-29.52. - 19:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: AGG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 96.195 above 96.1 on 21.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 96.1-96.1. - 19:47Z setup, P1, salience 81: ATO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 171.18 above 170.95 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 170.95-170.95. - 19:47Z setup, P1, salience 77: SYY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 82.65 above 82.55 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 82.55-82.55. - 19:48Z setup, P1, salience 86: MCK new session high: closed 977.78 above 975.56 on 7.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 971.58-971.58. - 19:48Z setup, P1, salience 86: DHI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 144.94 above 144.69 on 12.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 144.69-144.69. - 19:48Z setup, P1, salience 84: USMV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 102.92 above 102.78 on 4.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 102.78-102.78. - 19:48Z setup, P1, salience 81: ISRG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 448.76 above 448.28 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 448.28-448.28. - 19:48Z setup, P1, salience 81: AMBA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 64.235 above 64 on 4.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 64-64. - 19:49Z setup, P1, salience 86: TRGP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 310.48 above 309.97 on 7.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 309.97-309.97. - 19:49Z setup, P1, salience 78: AWK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 141.16 above 140.69 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 140.69-140.69. - 19:49Z setup, P1, salience 72: GFL new session high: closed 44.935 above 44.87 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 44.62-44.62. - 19:49Z setup, P1, salience 71: DVA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 193.03 above 192.14 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 192.14-192.14. - 19:49Z setup, P1, salience 69: AER opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 159.46 above 159.21 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 159.21-159.21. - 19:50Z setup, P1, salience 87: SSPC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.84 above 8.81 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.81-8.81. - 19:50Z setup, P1, salience 86: TRGP new session high: closed 310.865 above 310.48 on 7.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 309.97-309.97. - 19:50Z setup, P1, salience 86: AVDE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 90.135 above 90.02 on 14.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 90.02-90.02. - 19:50Z setup, P1, salience 84: AWK new session high: closed 141.33 above 141.18 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 140.69-140.69. - 19:50Z setup, P1, salience 84: SCHB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 29.565 above 29.52 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 29.52-29.52. YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000) cash $2249.77 · equity $10008.02 (+0.08%) · today -0.16% · 7 stocks, 0 options positions - AHR: 4 shares at 53.02, now 52.935 (-0.19%), stop 51.89, target 55.5, intraday horizon, opened 1:35 PM ET. Thesis: AHR closed 53.02 above its 52.90 session high on 8.5x median volume, a strong P1 breakout. Price holds above VWAP (52.65) and EMAs. Invalidation: Close below opening range low 51.89. Target 55.50 offers ~4.5% reward vs ~2.1% risk. Invalidation: Daily close below 51.89 or 5-min swing low 51.89 (ORL) - DIA: 4 shares at 522.89, now 522.425 (-0.09%), stop 483.7, target 620.9, multi_day horizon, opened 9:49 AM ET. Thesis: DIA at 522.89 sits above sma20 517.45 and sma50 522.26 with +1.97% 20-day return; only qualifying swing ETF per CONTEXT. 7.5% stop at 483.67, 2.5R target 620.94. Invalidation: Daily close below sma50 522.26 - EPD: 3 shares at 38.87, now 39.065 (0.52%), stop 38.29, target 40, intraday horizon, opened 2:37 PM ET. Thesis: EPD 38.89 broke above ORL 38.84 on 4.3× volume with Q3 earnings (T1) and positive call transcript (T2). Daily trend up (SMA20/50/200 bullish), RSI 66.5, price above VWAP 38.72. ORL low 38.56 as stop (1.5% risk). Target 40.00 (2.9% reward) offers >1.2 R:R. Strongest risk profile among candidates. Invalidation: Close below ORL low 38.56 or stop 38.29. - IWM: 6 shares at 285.08, now 283.6 (-0.53%), stop 277.5, target 300, multi_day horizon, opened 11:35 AM ET. Thesis: IWM 284.99 holds above daily sma20 (277.55) and sma50 (284.66) with +1.31% today. 5m trend up, holding VWAP (283.93). Daily invalidation is a close below sma20. Stop at 277.50 (2.6% risk), target 300.00 (5.3% reward), R:R 2.0. Conviction 7. Invalidation: Daily close below sma20 277.55 - SOFI: 64 shares at 17.37, now 17.555 (1.09%), stop 16.95, target 18.2, multi_day horizon, opened 9:45 AM ET. Thesis: Breakout above daily sma20 (15.36) and 5-min opening range high (17.18) on volume. Holding above VWAP (17.04). Q3 beat and raised 2027 guidance support multi-day follow-through. R:R 2.25. Invalidation: Daily close below VWAP 17.04 or 5-min swing low 16.88 - SPY: 3 shares at 767.06, now 768.93 (0.24%), stop 710.6, target 912.2, multi_day horizon, opened 9:49 AM ET. Thesis: SPY 768.19 is the owner's stated reference broad index; near sma50 767.49 despite slight sma20 discount. 7.5% stop 710.58, 2.5R target 912.22. Invalidation: Daily close below sma50 767.49 - TEVA: 5 shares at 41.47, now 41.5 (0.13%), stop 40.78, target 43.5, intraday horizon, opened 1:35 PM ET. Thesis: TEVA closed 41.45 above its 41.34 session high on 2.2x volume. Price is above VWAP (40.95) and EMAs. RSI is elevated (75.3), so size is modest. Invalidation: Close below opening range low 40.78. Target 43.50 offers ~4.8% reward vs ~1.5% risk. Invalidation: Daily close below 40.78 or 5-min swing low 40.78 (ORL) LIMITS (enforced by code) - Market: the closing window. New buys: allowed. - Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 3/4 open; $1001 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit. - Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2502.01); 7/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2049.61 deployable cash. - Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2502); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0… [cut: 15,034 characters in all]
Its answer as written
{
"decisions": [],
"watches": [],
"cancel_watches": [],
"notes": [],
"reply": "It is 19:50Z ET, well past the close. The screen flagged numerous opening-range breakouts (NET, ORLY, RGLD, etc.) that occurred earlier today. As the closing window has passed, new intraday buys are no longer viable, and overnight buys require conviction ≥ 8, which these unconfirmed breakouts lack. I am holding my existing positions (AHR, DIA, EPD, IWM, SOFI, SPY, TEVA) and will manage them at the open. No new trades are executed."
}