Episode · the market · Nov 9, 1:22 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T18:22Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 18:18Z setup, P1, salience 86: ALC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 75.085 above 74.89 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 74.5-74.89.
- 18:18Z setup, P1, salience 86: NYT new session high: closed 71.01 above 70.82 on 5.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 68.05-68.85.
- 18:18Z setup, P1, salience 86: GE new session high: closed 335.09 above 334.75 on 7× its median minute volume today; opening range 330.25-333.08.
- 18:19Z setup, P1, salience 65: ADSK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 264.14 above 263.57 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 261.15-263.57.
- 18:19Z setup, P1, salience 63: SOLV new session high: closed 90.51 above 90.22 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 89.02-89.67.
- 18:20Z setup, P1, salience 86: CBRE new session high: closed 140.15 above 139.9 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 138.25-138.79.
- 18:20Z setup, P1, salience 86: LOAR new session high: closed 78.065 above 77.94 on 6.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 76.76-77.15.
- 18:20Z setup, P1, salience 68: SHAK new session high: closed 78.3 above 78.21 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 75.08-76.69.
- 18:20Z setup, P1, salience 66: TSN new session high: closed 60.1 above 59.97 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 59.43-59.67.
- 18:21Z setup, P1, salience 86: MDLZ new session high: closed 66.495 above 66.43 on 8.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 65.63-66.01.
- 18:22Z setup, P1, salience 85: XPO new session high: closed 187.26 above 186.86 on 4.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 183.26-183.87.
- 18:22Z setup, P1, salience 66: DUK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 129.14 above 128.64 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 127.66-128.64.
- 18:22Z setup, P1, salience 66: AWI new session high: closed 179 above 178.78 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 175.5-178.17.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $10060.56 (+0.61%) · today +1.59% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 106.66 (2.86%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 389.415 (1.47%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 139.02 (1.51%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 312.25 (2.68%), stop 287.16, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.62 (1.52%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.76 (0.26%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 199.09 (0.07%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 752.035 (0.59%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 52.25 (-1.57%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 143.88 (0.07%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 357.11 (1.37%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG… [cut: 14,092 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "It is 18:22 ET, well past the 18:00 ET closing window. No new entries are permitted. All 11 positions in the book are holding within their stops and targets; no exits are triggered. Cash is low ($239.54) and insufficient for new buys even if the window were open. I will hold."
}