Episode · PRAX · Nov 9, 3:11 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T20:11Z

WOKE FOR: PRAX (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:11Z price, P2, salience 60: PRAX, which you hold, moved 3.04% since your last review at 321.24; stop 304.81.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $10190.81 (+1.91%) · today +2.91% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 107.305 (3.59%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 384.71 (0.16%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 141.44 (3.27%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 331 (9.85%), stop 304.81, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 249.205 (0.23%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.89 (0.25%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 199.54 (0.33%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 754.105 (0.86%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 52.25 (-1.28%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.12 (-1.83%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 352.625 (0.14%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2547.7). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $35.72 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2548); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 754.11 (+2.54%), QQQ 679.27 (+3.5%), IWM 283.395, DIA 524.28, VIXY 18.33, TLT 82.05

SUBJECT PRAX
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{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "PRAX",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "PRAX is up ~9.8% on a confirmed FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation. Price ($332.50) is well above the 50-day SMA ($291.48) and intraday VWAP ($310.78). The $340 target is close, but the catalyst (FDA) and analyst coverage (BTIG $826 PT) support further upside. The stop is currently at $304.81 (near entry); I will hold to let the trailing stop catch up to the strong trend, as the thesis remains intact. Invalidation would be a close below the 50-day SMA or a negative earnings surprise, neither of which has occurred yet.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price $332.50, +18.98% today",
        "FDA Breakthrough Therapy for Elsunersen (T2)",
        "BTIG Reiteration at $826 (T3)",
        "Price above SMA20/50/200",
        "RSI 65.7 (daily), not yet extreme"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 50-day SMA ($291.48) or negative earnings news.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "PRAX",
      "text": "Holding through earnings. FDA catalyst strong. BTIG PT $826 suggests significant upside. Monitor for earnings reaction post-close. Stop trails at entry level currently; will let it trail up as price holds above VWAP ($310.78)."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "PRAX is up ~9.8% on FDA Breakthrough Therapy news and holding above all key moving averages. I am holding the position to let the trailing stop adjust, as the thesis remains strong with significant upside potential (BTIG PT $826). Earnings are scheduled for tonight; I will monitor the reaction."
}