Episode · the market · Nov 12, 10:47 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T15:47Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:47Z setup, P1, salience 95: GWRE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 161.105 above 157.93 on 19.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 157.93-157.93.
- 15:47Z setup, P1, salience 82: TXG new session high: closed 58.655 above 58.49 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 54.83-57.77.
- 15:47Z setup, P1, salience 73: PURR new session high: closed 8.78 above 8.77 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.5-8.73.
- 15:47Z setup, P1, salience 71: AAON new session high: closed 79.86 above 79.14 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 74.22-76.65.
- 15:47Z setup, P1, salience 64: CRL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 336.81 above 334.96 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 328.71-334.96.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $306.56 · equity $10384.62 (+3.85%) · today -1.18% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 118.995 (0.00%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- FRVO: 147 shares at 12.58, now 12.195 (-3.10%), stop 11.94, target 14.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio. Invalidation: Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.355 (-0.55%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 408.89 (6.41%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 183.035 (-0.79%), stop 147.59, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 261.64 (5.12%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.01 (0.35%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 758.575 (1.44%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.86 (-1.30%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.165 (5.36%), stop 12.99, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below $12.99 (trailing stop) or reclaims SMA50 ($13.48) with weakness.
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 369.53 (5.00%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 1/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2596.16). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $98.87 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2596); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60%… [cut: 10,235 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "GWRE",
      "text": "15:47Z breakout to 161.105 on 19.8× volume. No news in 24h. Closing window active (17:00-18:00 ET). Rules prohibit new entries in closing window. Will review at open."
    },
    {
      "subject": "TXG",
      "text": "15:47Z new high 58.655 on 4.5× volume. No news. Closing window active. Will review at open."
    },
    {
      "subject": "PURR",
      "text": "15:47Z new high 8.78 on 3.4× volume. No news. Closing window active. Will review at open."
    },
    {
      "subject": "AAON",
      "text": "15:47Z new high 79.86 on 2.6× volume. No news. Closing window active. Will review at open."
    },
    {
      "subject": "CRL",
      "text": "15:47Z breakout 336.81 on 2× volume. No news. Closing window active. Will review at open."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "It is 15:47Z ET, inside the closing window (17:00-18:00 ET). Code prohibits new entries in this window. I am holding all 11 positions within their stops and targets. No exits triggered. I will review the setups at the open."
}