Episode · the market · Nov 13, 10:01 AM

NOW: 2026-11-13T15:01Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 95: LFTO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 24.12 above 23.21 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 22.68-23.21.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 86: DOG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 21.78 above 21.74 on 13.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 21.73-21.74.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 72: HDB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 25.97 above 25.93 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 25.8-25.93.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 69: VXX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 18.63 above 18.36 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 18.03-18.36.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 66: CNP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 41.21 above 41.12 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 40.99-41.12.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 86: HLN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 9.16 above 9.14 on 7.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 9.13-9.14.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 78: CRBG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 36.18 above 36.14 on 4.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 36.11-36.14.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 70: FOXA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 67.47 above 67.15 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 66.51-67.15.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 66: BDX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 218.06 above 217.66 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 216.83-217.66.
- 14:58Z setup, P1, salience 66: UNG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 10.24 above 10.19 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 10.13-10.19.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 91: VIXY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 17.83 above 17.62 on 7× its median minute volume today; opening range 17.28-17.62.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 86: PBR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 18.32 above 18.29 on 8× its median minute volume today; opening range 18.13-18.29.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 86: PBR.A opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 16.01 above 15.98 on 16.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 15.86-15.98.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 86: MTCH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 42.39 above 42.31 on 9.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 41.82-42.31.
- 14:59Z setup, P1, salience 66: IHI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 58.075 above 58.01 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 57.67-58.01.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 87: FANG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 185.09 above 184.26 on 6× its median minute volume today; opening range 183.32-184.26.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 86: ISRG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 446.84 above 446.33 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 442.77-446.33.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 67: GILD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 168.23 above 167.92 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 167.11-167.92.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 66: PG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 169.69 above 169.35 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 168.55-169.35.
- 15:00Z setup, P1, salience 63: WMT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 127.82 above 127.66 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 126.37-127.66.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 89: AJG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 283.02 above 281 on 8.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 280.54-281.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 87: MDT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 102.56 above 102.09 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 101.45-102.09.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 86: MDLZ opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 67.42 above 67.35 on 9.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 67.02-67.35.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 86: NVS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 160.45 above 160.01 on 7.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 159.59-160.01.
- 15:01Z setup, P1, salience 84: RELX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 40.61 above 40.35 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 40.23-40.35.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $218.03 · equity $10286.21 (+2.86%) · today -0.98% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.035 (0.03%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.685 (0.62%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 402.38 (4.86%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 179.52 (-2.70%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 260.275 (4.57%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.4 (0.55%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 753.875 (0.85%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- TOST: 52 sh… [cut: 18,340 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "LFTO",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 22.61,
      "take_profit": 26.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "LFTO broke its opening range (22.61-23.21) on 5.5× median volume, closing 24.12. News: T1 SEC 8-K for results (Nov 12) and T2 analyst upgrade (Nov 13). Price is well above SMA20/50. Invalidation: Close below opening range low 22.61. Reward:risk > 1.2.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Close below 22.61 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MDLZ",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 66.88,
      "take_profit": 70.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "MDLZ broke its opening range (66.88-67.35) on 9.9× median volume, closing 67.42. Strong daily uptrend above SMA20/50/200. Invalidation: Close below opening range low 66.88. Reward:risk > 1.2.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Close below 66.88 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "NVS",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 159.57,
      "take_profit": 165,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "NVS broke its opening range (159.57-160.01) on 7.4× median volume, closing 160.45. Strong daily uptrend above SMA20/50/200. Invalidation: Close below opening range low 159.57. Reward:risk > 1.2.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Close below 159.57 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought LFTO, MDLZ, and NVS on their opening-range breakouts with strong volume and clear invalidation levels. All are multi-day setups with stops below the opening range lows."
}