Episode · MPC · Nov 11, 9:30 AM

NOW: 2026-11-11T14:30Z

WOKE FOR: MPC (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:30Z price, P2, salience 64: MPC, which you hold, moved 4.10% since your last review at 381.27; stop 312.05.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $3829.42 · equity $10330.49 (+3.3%) · today +0.99% · 8 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 397.53 (2.88%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 255.61 (2.88%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.24 (0.63%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 24.22 (2.08%), stop 22.66, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 756.905 (1.21%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.45 (-3.08%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.66 (-0.80%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 358.425 (1.29%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET). New buys: blocked (inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET)).
- Your envelope: 2/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 1/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2582.62). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 3/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $3622.81 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2583); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 756.905 (+0.56%), QQQ 687.47 (+1.28%), IWM 282.73, DIA 522.71, VIXY 17.68, TLT 80.75

SUBJECT MPC
- 397.53 (bid 372.42, ask 416.85), +1.99% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
106e82a20a82 [Nov 10, 9:47 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 76 | +4.2% since] MPC +0.58% in 1 min (z 4.1 after removing SPY's move)
fceba7280025 [Nov 11, 5:16 AM ET | T2 finnhub.io | guidance | sev 75] BoE rate peak of 4.25% ‘will not be enough’, NIESR says in Autumn 2026 outlook (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=ba16a383125e2280bc2cf8f6b05f35100f4d463a24c9f5bb52634141b64eab5b)
> machine summary of the article: The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) stated in its Autumn 2026 Economic Outlook that the Bank of England's forecast rate peak of 4.25% will not be enough to control inflation. NIESR expects inflation to peak at 4.4% in February 2027, up from 3.8% in July, and suggests markets' pricing of around 4.75% is closer to what is needed. The think tank warned that delaying tightening could make inflation more embedded and require larger rate rises.
35621cc20385 [Nov 11, 6:33 AM ET | T2 marketscreener.com | analyst action | sev 46] BMO Capital Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $450 From $535 (https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bmo-capital-adjusts-price-target-on-marathon-petroleum-to-450-from-535-ce785edbdd8ff321)
</untrusted>

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:35Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:07Z] 20:07Z: Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (VTRS, EWBC, SPSM, CHTR) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T19:12Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (BMI, IWD, SCHM, SUPN, KNSL, HYD, GL, ET, UTHR, SPYV, FNB, VTWO, IWN, WFRD) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T18:52Z] Closing window (17:00-18:0… [cut: 8,835 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "MPC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "MPC is in a short-term downtrend (below SMA20/50, RSI 37.7) and faced a BMO price target cut ($535 to $450). However, as a LONG-TERM BOOK position, the rules dictate holding until a weekly close below the 200-day average ($298.25) or news that breaks the long-term thesis. The current price (~$397) is 33% above the 200-day average. The BMO downgrade is a valuation adjustment, not a fundamental break of the long-term case (e.g., margin collapse or regulatory ban). The T1 anomaly was a minor dip absorbed by buyers. The stop of $312.05 remains valid. No new entries are allowed in the closing window.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 397.53 vs SMA200 298.25 (+33%)",
        "BMO target cut to $450 from $535",
        "RSI 37.7, below SMA20/50",
        "T1 anomaly: minor dip absorbed"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average ($298.25) or news of fundamental impairment.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "MPC",
      "text": "Held through BMO downgrade and technical weakness. Price remains 33% above 200-day average. Stop 312.05 intact. Monitor for weekly close below 200-day SMA."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Held MPC through BMO downgrade and technical weakness; price remains 33% above 200-day average, so long-term thesis holds. No new entries in closing window."
}