Episode · the market · Nov 12, 9:57 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:57Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:53Z setup, P1, salience 87: LNG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 306.49 above 305.33 on 5.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 303.4-305.33.
- 14:53Z setup, P1, salience 82: LQDA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 56.33 above 55.75 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 54.43-55.75.
- 14:53Z setup, P1, salience 80: WMB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 69.24 above 69.09 on 4.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 68.81-69.09.
- 14:53Z setup, P1, salience 70: NEBX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 6.59 above 6.55 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.7-6.55.
- 14:53Z setup, P1, salience 69: WAT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 469.515 above 465.43 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 462.18-465.43.
- 14:54Z setup, P1, salience 94: DELL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 364.675 above 358.17 on 12.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 345-358.17.
- 14:54Z setup, P1, salience 89: VIAV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 32.46 above 32.21 on 8.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 31.1-32.21.
- 14:54Z setup, P1, salience 86: CDNS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 328.3 above 327.61 on 7.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 325.02-327.61.
- 14:54Z setup, P1, salience 78: AXTX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.04 above 7.78 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 6.66-7.78.
- 14:54Z setup, P1, salience 75: LITX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 11.13 above 10.93 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 9.91-10.93.
- 14:55Z setup, P1, salience 87: ETSY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 89.17 above 88.83 on 27.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 87.75-88.83.
- 14:55Z setup, P1, salience 81: BBIO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 80.36 above 80.23 on 4.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 79-80.23.
- 14:55Z setup, P1, salience 76: AMT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 191 above 190.74 on 3.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 189.8-190.74.
- 14:55Z setup, P1, salience 71: SITM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 468.28 above 464.9 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 449.97-464.9.
- 14:55Z setup, P1, salience 70: NTAP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 182.95 above 181.85 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 176.8-181.85.
- 14:56Z setup, P1, salience 80: RVTY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 157.25 above 155.22 on 3.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 153.68-155.22.
- 14:56Z setup, P1, salience 69: SWKS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 90.61 above 89.96 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 87.49-89.96.
- 14:56Z setup, P1, salience 66: TLN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 382.045 above 381.01 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 373.5-381.01.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 87: GPN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 99.965 above 99.66 on 12.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 98.6-99.66.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 86: RWM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 14.32 above 14.3 on 10.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 14.23-14.3.
- 14:57Z setup, P1, salience 63: SNAP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 5.25 above 5.24 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.19-5.24.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1913.32 · equity $10355.73 (+3.56%) · today -1.45% · 9 stocks, 0 options positions
- FRVO: 147 shares at 12.58, now 12.17 (-3.38%), stop 11.94, target 14.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio. Invalidation: Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 407.645 (6.20%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 261.17 (5.06%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.13 (0.38%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 757.135 (1.29%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 48.945 (-7.59%), stop 47.67, target 49.35, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average (if I were to re-enter, but I am exiting).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.05 (-1.21%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.065 (4.48%), stop 12.67, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is abov… [cut: 15,515 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "LNG",
      "text": "P1 setup at 14:53Z (breakout 306.49 above 305.33, 5.7x vol). No news in 24h. Closing window active (14:57Z). No new buys."
    },
    {
      "subject": "LQDA",
      "text": "P1 setup at 14:53Z (breakout 56.33 above 55.75, 4x vol). Catalyst: Q3 earnings call (Nov 11) highlighting growth and post-settlement outlook. Technically strong. Closing window active. No new buys."
    },
    {
      "subject": "GPN",
      "text": "P1 setup at 14:57Z (breakout 99.965 above 99.66, 12.4x vol). No news in 24h. Closing window active. No new buys."
    },
    {
      "subject": "ETS",
      "text": "P1 setup at 14:55Z (breakout 89.17 above 88.83, 27.9x vol). No news in 24h. Closing window active. No new buys."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "It is 14:57Z ET, inside the closing window (17:00-18:00 ET). No new entries are allowed. I reviewed the P1 setups (LNG, LQDA, GPN, ETS, etc.) but none can be bought. All existing holdings are within their stops and targets, and no news has broken the trend for any of them. No action taken."
}