Episode · U · Nov 11, 3:51 PM

NOW: 2026-11-11T20:51Z

WOKE FOR: U (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:51Z price, P0, salience 60: U, which you hold, moved -3.00% since your last review at 51.16; stop 47.67.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $216.14 · equity $10501.24 (+5.01%) · today +2.66% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- ABT: 1 shares at 110.12, now 109.91 (-0.21%), stop 109.1, target 115, multi_day horizon, opened 1:02 PM ET. Thesis: ABT broke above its 15-min opening range high (110.04) on 2.2× median volume, closing at 110.17. The move is supported by a T2 catalyst: FDA approval and CE Mark for a new implantable cardioverter-defibrillator lead (Nov 11, 6:33 AM ET). Technically, ABT is in a strong uptrend (above SMA20/50/200) with RSI 58.4 and room to the 52-week high (132.03). The opening range low (109.1) provides a natural stop. Target 115.0 offers ~4.4% upside vs ~1% risk. Invalidation: Price closes below 109.1 (opening range low) or news reverses the FDA approval narrative.
- KRMN: 59 shares at 44.04, now 44.77 (1.64%), stop 44.07, target 48, multi_day horizon, opened 12:45 PM ET. Thesis: KRMN closed at 44.03, breaking above its 15-min opening range high of 43.74 on 6.5× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (above SMA20/50) with a 5-day return of +28.87% and RSI 60.6. The move is supported by heavy volume and a clear technical breakout. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 43.39. Invalidation: Price closes below 43.39 (opening range low)
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 402.15 (4.74%), stop 320.84, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 258.065 (3.73%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.855 (0.28%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SCHE: 28 shares at 35.22, now 35.185 (-0.10%), stop 34.5, target 38, multi_day horizon, opened 10:52 AM ET. Thesis: SCHE broke above its 15-min opening range high (35.15) on 15.5× median volume, closing at 35.21. This is a strong technical breakout with heavy volume. No recent news in our feeds, so the move is purely technical/flow-driven. The setup is strong enough to warrant a trade based on momentum and volume. Entry: 35.21. Stop: 34.50 (below the opening range low of 35.09 and providing a ~2% risk). Target: 38.00 (approx 8% upside, R:R ~4:1). Invalidation: Price closes below 34.50 (opening range low area).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 760.085 (1.66%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 49.625 (-6.30%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.67 (-1.46%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.615 (0.92%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 364.44 (3.45%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the closing window. New buys: blocked by your envelope (4/4 open).
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2625.31). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 6/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $6.12 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2625); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 760.085 (+0.98%), QQQ 690.575 (+1.74%), IWM 282.88, DIA 524.43, VIXY 16.99, TLT 80.92

SUBJECT U
- 49.625 (bid 49.61, ask 49.64), -3.48% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted so… [cut: 11,462 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "U",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 47.67,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "U is in the TREND CORE, managed by rules that trail the stop and sell on a close below the 50-day average. The current price of 49.625 is above the trailing stop at 47.67. The trend remains intact with no news to break the long-term case. The recent -3% move is within normal volatility and does not invalidate the thesis. The stop remains at 47.67, which is below the 50-day average (42.99) and provides a buffer against further downside. No action needed at this time.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 49.625 is above the 50-day average (42.99) and the trailing stop (47.67).",
        "No news to break the long-term case.",
        "The trend core rules require holding until the trailing stop or a close below the 50-day average."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 47.67 (trailing stop) or a close below the 50-day average (42.99).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "U is in the TREND CORE, and the price remains above the trailing stop and 50-day average. No news to break the trend. Holding as per rules."
}