Episode · the market · Nov 10, 11:08 AM

NOW: 2026-11-10T16:08Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:04Z setup, P1, salience 86: MTD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 1749.99 above 1745.84 on 7.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 1745.14-1745.84.
- 16:04Z setup, P1, salience 76: NFG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 74.285 above 73.8 on 3.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 73.8-73.8.
- 16:05Z setup, P1, salience 86: AMT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 188.69 above 188.29 on 6.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 187.06-188.29.
- 16:05Z setup, P1, salience 77: ZIP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 5.75 above 5.6 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.51-5.6.
- 16:05Z setup, P1, salience 68: TTD new session high: closed 15.285 above 15.22 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 14.57-15.11.
- 16:06Z setup, P1, salience 63: FERG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 258.11 above 257.35 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 255.54-257.35.
- 16:08Z setup, P1, salience 87: BAH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 86.81 above 86.53 on 12.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 85.91-86.53.
- 16:08Z setup, P1, salience 77: MAR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 422.845 above 421.8 on 3.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 419.42-421.8.
- 16:08Z setup, P1, salience 70: LDOS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 137.44 above 136.37 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 136.37-136.37.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $3447.57 · equity $10220.83 (+2.21%) · today +0.02% · 9 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 387.4 (0.92%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 248.25 (-0.25%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.06 (0.41%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 193.48 (-2.93%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 23.505 (-0.34%), stop 22.66, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 748.215 (0.05%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 50.1 (-5.51%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 140.23 (-2.32%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 347.63 (-1.33%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 2/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 1/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2555.21). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 3/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $3243.15 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2555); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 748.215 (-0.6%), QQQ 674.725 (-0.6%), IWM 278.73, DIA 519.79, VIXY 18.7, TLT 80.89

SUBJECT MTD
- 1747.19; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT NFG
- 74.195; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
7f236e07d642 [Nov 10, 9:45 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 74 | +0.5% since] NFG -0.49% in 1 min (z -5.41 after … [cut: 12,191 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "It is 16:08Z ET, inside the closing window (17:00–18:00 ET). Per the brief's rules, no new entries are allowed in the closing window. All observed setups (MTD, NFG, AMT, ZIP, TTD, FERG, BAH, MAR, LDOS) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 9 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3447.57."
}