Episode · the market · Nov 13, 9:46 AM

NOW: 2026-11-13T14:46Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 80: TOST opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 34.415 above 34.24 on 4.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 33.58-34.24.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 79: TTWO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 232.04 above 231.22 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 227.55-231.22.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 75: SNAP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 5.32 above 5.31 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.18-5.31.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 75: MSFU opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 39.585 above 39.5 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 38.58-39.5.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 73: ALNY opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 164.74 above 164.2 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 159.2-164.2.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $2010.47 · equity $10325.45 (+3.25%) · today -0.6% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.035 (0.03%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.69 (0.62%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 402.07 (4.76%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 181.86 (-0.87%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 259.57 (4.41%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.31 (0.50%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 756.59 (1.23%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 146.48 (1.89%), stop 117.32, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.285 (6.32%), stop 12.99, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below $12.99 (trailing stop) or reclaims SMA50 ($13.48) with weakness.
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 369.42 (4.79%), stop 302.19, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 5/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 2/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2581.36). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $1803.96 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2581); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 756.59 (-0.42%), QQQ 685.745 (-0.67%), IWM 277.88, DIA 523.5832, VIXY 17.55, TLT 79.25

SUBJECT TOST
- 34.415; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT TTWO
- 232.04; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT SNAP
- 5.32; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds ab… [cut: 10,139 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "TOST",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 33.58,
      "take_profit": 36.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "TOST is in a strong daily uptrend (above SMA20/50/200), with price breaking the 15-min opening range (33.58-34.24) on 4.1× median volume. The move is clean with no news, but the volume and technical structure are strong. Stop at the opening range low (33.58) provides a tight, logical invalidation. Target 36.50 (near 52-week high) offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 33.58.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 34.415, above OR high 34.24",
        "Volume 4.1× median",
        "SMA20 33.26, SMA50 31.86, SMA200 29.4",
        "RSI 59.1, 20-day range 30.82-36.02",
        "No news in last 24h"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 33.58 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TTWO",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 227.55,
      "take_profit": 245,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "TTWO broke its 15-min opening range (227.55-231.22) on 4× median volume. Price is above SMA20/50/200, indicating a strong daily uptrend. The move is clean with no news, but the volume and technical structure are strong. Stop at the opening range low (227.55) provides a tight, logical invalidation. Target 245.00 offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 227.55.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 232.04, above OR high 231.22",
        "Volume 4× median",
        "SMA20 207.95, SMA50 207.94, SMA200 218.44",
        "RSI 66.4, 20-day range 184.05-237.41",
        "No news in last 24h"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 227.55 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought TOST and TTWO on their opening-range breakouts on heavy volume. Both are in strong daily uptrends with clean technicals and no news, so the volume and structure are the primary drivers. Stops are set at the opening range lows."
}