Episode · the market · Nov 12, 9:40 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:40Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:40Z session, P2, salience 50: The session is open and past its opening buffer: buys are allowed until the close at 4:00 PM ET.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $3917.77 · equity $10534.37 (+5.34%) · today +0.25% · 8 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 407.11 (6.14%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 260.65 (4.78%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.09 (0.37%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 757.18 (1.27%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 49.13 (-7.12%), stop 47.67, target 49.35, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average (if I were to re-enter, but I am exiting).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.62 (-1.46%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.9 (3.12%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 367.51 (4.11%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 1/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2633.59). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 3/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $3707.08 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2634); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 757.18 (-0.34%), QQQ 687.145 (-0.47%), IWM 281.12, DIA 524.45, VIXY 17.25, TLT 80.62

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-12T13:00Z] P2 review at 08:00 ET. No new entries allowed until regular session opens (9:30 ET). All 10 holdings are within their stops and targets. Will monitor for open setups and review holdings at 09:40 ET.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-11T14:40Z] P2 review: Market is up (SPY +0.55%, QQQ +1.25%). No new setups presented in this brief. Holdings are stable. S is approaching its $25 target. No news triggers for long-term book positions. No action needed at this time.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:35Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:07Z] 20:07Z: Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (VTRS, EWBC, SPSM, CHTR) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T19:12Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (BMI, IWD, SCHM, SUPN, KNSL, HYD, GL, ET, UTHR, SPYV, FNB, VTWO, IWN, WFRD) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.

YOUR WATCHES
none

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "MPC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 407.11 is well above the 380 stop and 200-day average. No news breaks the long-term leader thesis.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 260.65 is above the 212.58 stop. Long-term leader thesis intact.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PTC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 196.09 is above the 190.75 stop. Trend core remains intact.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Trailing stop or close below 50-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 757.18 is above the 200-day average (730.38). Long-term book holds.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "U",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 49.13 is above the 47.67 stop. Trend core thesis holds.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 141.62 is above the 115.75 stop. Long-term leader thesis intact.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VG",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 12.90 is above the 12.07 opening range low stop. Earnings beat and raised outlook support the move.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "Price 367.51 is above the 300.25 stop. Long-term leader thesis intact.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "P2 review at 14:40Z: Market is slightly soft (SPY -0.34%, QQQ -0.47%), but all 8 holdings remain within their stops and targets. No new setups or news triggers require action. I am holding the book."
}