Episode · MPC · Nov 12, 9:30 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:30Z

WOKE FOR: MPC (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:30Z price, P2, salience 68: MPC, which you hold, moved 5.38% since your last review at 383.85; stop 320.84.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $325.24 · equity $10486.28 (+4.86%) · today -0.21% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- KRMN: 59 shares at 44.04, now 44.265 (0.51%), stop 44.07, target 48, multi_day horizon, opened 12:45 PM ET. Thesis: KRMN closed at 44.03, breaking above its 15-min opening range high of 43.74 on 6.5× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (above SMA20/50) with a 5-day return of +28.87% and RSI 60.6. The move is supported by heavy volume and a clear technical breakout. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 43.39. Invalidation: Price closes below 43.39 (opening range low)
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 405.16 (5.55%), stop 320.84, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 259.9 (4.47%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.01 (0.38%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SCHE: 28 shares at 35.22, now 34.515 (-1.94%), stop 34.5, target 38, multi_day horizon, opened 10:52 AM ET. Thesis: SCHE broke above its 15-min opening range high (35.15) on 15.5× median volume, closing at 35.21. This is a strong technical breakout with heavy volume. No recent news in our feeds, so the move is purely technical/flow-driven. The setup is strong enough to warrant a trade based on momentum and volume. Entry: 35.21. Stop: 34.50 (below the opening range low of 35.09 and providing a ~2% risk). Target: 38.00 (approx 8% upside, R:R ~4:1). Invalidation: Price closes below 34.50 (opening range low area).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 753.69 (0.88%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 48.625 (-8.61%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.96 (-1.37%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.745 (2.15%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 365 (3.71%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET). New buys: blocked (inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET)).
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2621.57). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $115.51 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2622); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 753.69 (-0.8%), QQQ 680.615 (-1.42%), IWM 281.58, DIA 525.09, VIXY 17.48, TLT 80.72

SUBJECT MPC
- 405.16 (bid 384.27, ask 428.3), +0.63% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
2622dc5c613b [Nov 11, 1:21 PM ET | T2 finnhub.io | m and a | sev 84 | +2.1% since] Diamondback and KKR to Acquire Five Point's 70% Stake in Deep Blue (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a872f1873035dd643632a816a014296fb06deff0668645a7f4f9374a3865111e)
> machine summary of the article: Diamondback Energy and KKR plan to jointly acquire Five Point Infrastructure's 70% stake in Deep Blue Midland Basin LLC. The transaction, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, would give both parties joint ownership of the water infrastructure platform. Diamondback already holds a 30% interest in the joint venture esta… [cut: 11,131 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "SCHE",
      "action": "sell",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 10,
      "rationale": "SCHE broke above its 15-min opening range high (35.15) on heavy volume, but price has fallen to 34.515, well below the opening range low (35.09) and entry (35.22). The breakout thesis is broken intraday. The stop is 34.50; price is 34.515. Immediate exit to preserve capital.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 34.515 < Opening Range Low 35.09",
        "Price 34.515 < Entry 35.22",
        "No news to support hold"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 34.50 (already effectively breached).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MPC",
      "action": "adjust_exits",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 380,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "MPC is up 5.55% from entry (383.85 -> 405.16). The stop is currently 320.84. Trailing the stop to 380.00 locks in a profit and protects against a reversal while keeping the long-term thesis intact. The Q3 earnings beat and undervaluation thesis remain valid. No news breaks the long-term case.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 405.16",
        "Entry 383.85",
        "Stop 320.84 -> 380.00"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Sold SCHE as the breakout failed intraday (price < opening range low). Adjusted MPC stop to 380.00 to lock in gains from the earnings-driven rally."
}