Episode · the market · Nov 9, 12:47 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T17:47Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 17:43Z setup, P1, salience 87: TTD new session high: closed 15.13 above 15.08 on 6.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 13.95-14.31.
- 17:43Z setup, P1, salience 63: STRC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 99.94 above 99.84 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 99.82-99.84.
- 17:44Z setup, P1, salience 87: MKC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 48.25 above 48.09 on 37.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 47.84-48.09.
- 17:44Z setup, P1, salience 68: CRM new session high: closed 217.01 above 216.73 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 214.53-215.33.
- 17:44Z setup, P1, salience 62: BMI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 161.07 above 160.75 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 160.4-160.75.
- 17:45Z setup, P1, salience 86: BBIO new session high: closed 76.48 above 76.38 on 5.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 73.58-74.04.
- 17:45Z setup, P1, salience 73: PI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 177.54 above 174 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 174-174.
- 17:45Z setup, P1, salience 70: ARGX new session high: closed 959.01 above 957.68 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 937.33-943.44.
- 17:45Z setup, P1, salience 69: WRB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 75.81 above 75.64 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 75.14-75.64.
- 17:45Z setup, P1, salience 68: CL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 97.88 above 97.57 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 97-97.57.
- 17:46Z setup, P1, salience 75: BR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 191.9 above 191.67 on 3.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 190.12-191.67.
- 17:46Z setup, P1, salience 68: DKNG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 18.57 above 18.55 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 18.18-18.55.
- 17:46Z setup, P1, salience 65: ESAB new session high: closed 88.2 above 88.1 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 85.25-85.62.
- 17:46Z setup, P1, salience 65: CLX new session high: closed 103.94 above 103.82 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 100.41-101.88.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $10025.69 (+0.26%) · today +1.24% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 106.85 (2.91%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 391.17 (1.91%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 139.72 (2.07%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 303.64 (-0.07%), stop 281.67, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 281.67.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 253.16 (1.77%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.625 (0.15%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 197.73 (-0.62%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 751.99 (0.58%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 52.15 (-1.55%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 143.62 (-0.07%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% … [cut: 14,577 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "MARKET",
      "text": "17:47Z: Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. All observed setups (TTD, STRC, MKC, CRM, BMI, BBIO, PI, ARGX, WRB, CL, BR, DKNG, ESAB, CLX) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 11 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $239.54."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Closing window is active; no new entries allowed. All observed setups are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts. Book holds 11 stocks; no exits triggered."
}