Episode · U · Nov 9, 3:54 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T20:54Z

WOKE FOR: U (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 20:54Z price, P0, salience 60: U, which you hold, moved -3.04% since your last review at 52.97; stop 47.67.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $2831.54 · equity $10211.55 (+2.12%) · today +3.12% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 389.67 (1.54%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 141.29 (3.37%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 331.18 (8.95%), stop 310.39, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.76 (1.60%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.86 (0.27%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 200.79 (0.84%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 753.545 (0.78%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.39 (-2.98%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.45 (-0.82%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 356.22 (1.13%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the closing window. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2552.89). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 4/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $2627.31 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2553); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 753.545 (+2.47%), QQQ 679.88 (+3.59%), IWM 282.595, DIA 523.47, VIXY 18.235, TLT 81.9445

SUBJECT U
- 51.39 (bid 51.32, ask 51.41), -0.19% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
eeb582158434 [Nov 9, 10:04 AM ET | T2 finance.yahoo.com | m and a | sev 84 | -2.3% since] Unity shares jump on report of takeover interest from Silver Lake, PIF (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/unity-shares-jump-report-takeover-005227947.html?.tsrc=rss)
23690481e621 [Nov 9, 10:01 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 79 | +1 confirmations | -2.4% since] Unity Software (U) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/unity-software-u-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript)
020d7a3e72e7 [Nov … [cut: 9,917 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "U",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "U is in the TREND CORE, which requires holding until the trailing stop or a close below the 50-day average. The price at 51.39 is well above the stop at 47.67. The recent -3.04% move is likely a reaction to the Silver Lake/PIF takeover rumors (T2 news, sev 84) and Q3 earnings context, but the trend remains intact. No news breaks the trend thesis. The closing window is active, so no new entries are possible anyway. We hold through the close.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below the trailing stop at 47.67 or a close below the 50-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MPC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "LONG-TERM BOOK position. Price 389.67 is above stop 312.05. No new negative news. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below its 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "NBIS",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "Speculative bounce play. Price 141.29 is above stop 129.47. Target 145 is still in play. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PRAX",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "Momentum play with SEC filing catalyst. Price 331.18 is above stop 310.39. Target 340 is in play. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "LONG-TERM BOOK position. Price 252.76 is above stop 212.58. No new negative news. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below its 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PTC",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "TREND CORE position. Price 195.86 is above stop 190.75. Trend intact. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RVMD",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "LONG-TERM BOOK position. Price 200.79 is above stop 160.43. No new negative news. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below its 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "LONG-TERM BOOK position. Price 753.545 is above stop (none, but weekly close above 200-day avg). Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below its 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "LONG-TERM BOOK position. Price 142.45 is above stop 115.75. No new negative news. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below its 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "LONG-TERM BOOK position. Price 356.22 is above stop 300.25. No new negative news. Hold.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "A week closing below its 200-day average.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Holding all 10 positions through the close. U's -3% move is within its trend core stop and driven by takeover rumors, not a trend break. No new entries allowed in the closing window."
}