Episode · the market · Nov 12, 10:07 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T15:07Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:03Z setup, P1, salience 76: ADIG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 11.895 above 11.63 on 2.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 11.59-11.63.
- 15:04Z setup, P1, salience 62: OVV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 63.83 above 63.71 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 63.27-63.71.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 86: FTI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 65.54 above 65.42 on 6.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 65.14-65.42.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 78: ETN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 355.87 above 355.49 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 350.19-355.49.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 68: GEV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 814.99 above 808.22 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 787.86-808.22.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 63: SBAC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 189.275 above 188.55 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 188.18-188.55.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 87: TWST opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 109.04 above 104.94 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 96.65-104.94.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 86: JD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 27.535 above 27.48 on 10.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 27.17-27.48.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 69: DHT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 21.7 above 21.63 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 21.35-21.63.
- 15:07Z setup, P1, salience 86: APA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 46.915 above 46.86 on 12.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 46.52-46.86.
- 15:07Z setup, P1, salience 65: TRGP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 293.5 above 292.57 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 290.8-292.57.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $235.33 · equity $10373.21 (+3.73%) · today -1.29% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 118.995 (-0.01%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- FRVO: 147 shares at 12.58, now 12.03 (-4.37%), stop 11.94, target 14.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio. Invalidation: Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 409.97 (6.70%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 182.465 (-1.17%), stop 147.59, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 261.675 (5.28%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.1 (0.39%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 756.285 (1.14%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 48.82 (-7.85%), stop 47.67, target 49.35, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average (if I were to re-enter, but I am exiting).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.37 (-0.93%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.225 (5.84%), stop 12.74, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 370.24 (5.08%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 2… [cut: 12,923 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "JD",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 27.17,
      "take_profit": 29.65,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65).",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 27.535, OR high 27.48, OR low 27.17",
        "Volume 10.2× median",
        "No news in last 24h"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 27.17 (opening range low).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "APA",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 46.52,
      "take_profit": 49,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "APA broke its 15-min opening range (46.86) on extreme 12.4× volume at 46.915. This is a high-conviction volume breakout. The stop at the OR low (46.52) is tight. Target set to ~49.00 for >1.2 R:R. No news, but volume speaks loudly.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 46.915, OR high 46.86, OR low 46.52",
        "Volume 12.4× median",
        "No news in last 24h"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 46.52 (opening range low).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TWST",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 104.94,
      "take_profit": 112.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "TWST broke its 15-min opening range (104.94) on 4× volume at 109.04. Catalyst is confirmed: Q4 2026 earnings release (8-K) and call transcript. The move is driven by fundamentals, not just flow. Stop at OR low (104.94) is solid. Target 112.50 offers good R:R.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 109.04, OR high 104.94, OR low 96.65",
        "Volume 4× median",
        "News: Q4 2026 Earnings (8-K, Transcript)"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 104.94 (opening range low).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought JD, APA, and TWST on opening-range breakouts with heavy volume. JD and APA had no news but massive volume confirmed the move. TWST had a confirmed earnings catalyst. All stops set at opening range lows."
}