Episode · the market · Nov 3, 9:52 AM

NOW: 2026-11-03T14:52Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 88: U opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 39.3 above 39.07 on 9.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 38.67-39.07.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 86: ABVX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 89.355 above 89.26 on 16.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 86.71-89.26.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 86: EQH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 55.73 above 55.55 on 4.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 54.54-55.55.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 81: WOLF opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 22.45 above 22.3 on 4.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 21.47-22.3.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 74: PANW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 359.935 above 359.45 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 352.28-359.45.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 86: WAT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 472.405 above 471.54 on 6.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 457.86-471.54.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 74: WTRG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 43.895 above 43.71 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 43.38-43.71.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 63: CAT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 622.97 above 622 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 617.78-622.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 94: HUT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 60.605 above 59.59 on 8× its median minute volume today; opening range 55.88-59.59.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 87: EQIX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 1010.92 above 1006.95 on 12.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 995-1006.95.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: ELF opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 111.405 above 111.28 on 9.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 110.67-111.28.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: EMR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 166.27 above 165.98 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 165.09-165.98.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 80: MSTX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 13.07 above 12.98 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 12.72-12.98.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 87: BTDR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 6.645 above 6.61 on 4.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 6.27-6.61.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 81: ZBRA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 332.045 above 323.35 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 312.85-323.35.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 78: FLR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 47.51 above 47.32 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 46.77-47.32.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 74: BA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 175.675 above 175.28 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 174.09-175.28.
- 14:52Z setup, P1, salience 66: CRWV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 53.01 above 52.53 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 51.07-52.53.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9776.59 · equity $9892.56 (-1.07%) · today +0.02% · 1 stocks, 0 options positions
- RIOT: 9 shares at 12.68, now 12.89 (1.62%), stop 12.35, target 13.2, intraday horizon, opened 9:47 AM ET. Thesis: RIOT broke above its 15-minute opening range high of 12.60 on 6.5× median volume, closing at 12.67. Price is well below SMAs (20/50/200), indicating a deep downtrend. The breakout is on heavy volume but lacks news catalyst. RSI is low (35.2), suggesting oversold conditions. Reward:risk is >1.2 with a 2.5% stop. Given the lack of news and strong downtrend, I am sizing conservatively at 2.5% of equity with a tight stop below the breakout level. Invalidation: Price closes back below 12.60 or hits stop at 12.35.

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 1/2 in the last hour, 1/4 open; $875 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2473.14); 1/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9578.74 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2473); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 754.245 (-0.2%), QQQ 686.145 (-0.64%), IWM 280.27, DIA 516.27, VIXY 18.23, TLT 81.27

SUBJECT U
- 39.175; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT ABVX
- 89.61; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT EQH
- 55.69; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
653a05a1577a [Nov 2, 4:15 PM ET | T1 sec.gov | earnings | sev 60] EQH 8-K: 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1333986/000133398626000054/0001333986-26-000054-index.htm)
4df3c8afabc1 [Nov 3, 12:01 AM ET | T2 zacks.com | earnings | sev 51] Equitable Holdings, Inc. (EQH) Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates (https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3021293/equitable-holdings-inc-eqh-surpasses-q3-earnings-estimates?cid=CS-ZC-FT-fundamental_analysis|yseop_template_4-3021293)
a0c49e2dc924 [Nov 3, 12:01 AM ET | T2 zacks.com | earnings | sev 51] Compared to Estimates, Equitable Holdings (EQH) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics (https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3021294/compared-to-estimates-equitable-holdings-eqh-q3-earnings-a-look-at-key-metrics?cid=CS-ZC-FT-fundamental_analysis|nfm-3021294)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT WOLF
- 22.1; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PANW
- 358.555; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT WAT
- 471.48; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
3209581eae1e [Nov 3, 8:12 AM ET | T1 sec.gov | earnings | sev 60] WAT 8-K: 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000697/000119312526444400/0001193125-26-444400-index.htm)
8deca77e5781 [Nov 3, 9:09 AM ET | T2 benzinga.com | earnings | sev 51] Waters Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/11/62820553/waters-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT WTRG
- 44; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT CAT
- 622.23; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
a0e7d1efaf6f [Nov 2, 5:32 PM ET | T2 tradingview.com | earnings | sev 51 | +1.3% since] Analysts Adjust Price Targets for Caterpillar Following Third-Quarter Results (https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:c7fa828dc0beb:0-weekly-recap-q3-revenue-growth-and-analysts-cut-price-targets)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT HUT
- 60.94; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
913a369a0b9a [Nov 2, 10:01 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 85 | +6.0% since] HUT +2.64% in 1 min (z 6.15 after removing SPY's mo… [cut: 11,261 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "HUT",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 4.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 57,
      "take_profit": 68,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "HUT broke above its 15-minute opening range high of 59.59 on 8× median volume. Price is well below SMAs (20/50/200-day) and RSI is low (38.2), indicating a deep downtrend. The breakout is on heavy volume but lacks news catalyst. RSI is low (38.2), suggesting oversold conditions. Reward:risk is >1.2 with a 6.5% stop. Given the lack of news and strong downtrend, I am sizing conservatively at 4.5% of equity with a tight stop below the breakout level. Invalidation: Price closes back below 59.59 or hits stop at 57.00.",
      "evidence": [
        "HUT closed 60.605 above 59.59 on 8× median volume.",
        "Daily SMA20 70.8 (-13.93%), SMA50 83.08 (-26.65%), SMA200 82.5 (-26.13%).",
        "RSI14 38.2, ATR14 6.5 (10.67%)."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes back below 59.59 or hits stop at 57.00.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EQIX",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 4,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 975,
      "take_profit": 1080,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "EQIX broke above its 15-minute opening range high of 1006.95 on 12.2× median volume. Price is near SMA20 (999.79) and SMA200 (1012.72), indicating a consolidation phase. The breakout is on heavy volume and supported by a stock offering announcement. RSI is neutral (51.1). Reward:risk is >1.2 with a 3.5% stop. Given the strong volume and neutral technicals, I am sizing at 4.0% of equity with a stop below the breakout level. Invalidation: Price closes back below 1006.95 or hits stop at 975.00.",
      "evidence": [
        "EQIX closed 1010.92 above 1006.95 on 12.2× median volume.",
        "Daily SMA20 999.79 (1.11%), SMA50 1020.02 (-0.89%), SMA200 1012.72 (-0.18%).",
        "RSI14 51.1, ATR14 31.04 (3.07%)."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes back below 1006.95 or hits stop at 975.00.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "HUT",
      "text": "Breakout on heavy volume but lacks news catalyst. RSI low (38.2). Tight stop below breakout level."
    },
    {
      "subject": "EQIX",
      "text": "Breakout on heavy volume supported by stock offering announcement. RSI neutral (51.1). Stop below breakout level."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Bought HUT and EQIX on opening-range breakouts with heavy volume. HUT lacks news catalyst but has oversold RSI; EQIX has neutral RSI and is supported by a stock offering announcement. Both have tight stops below breakout levels."
}