Episode · the market · Nov 6, 10:41 AM

NOW: 2026-11-06T15:41Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:37Z setup, P1, salience 86: CGMU opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 26.99 above 26.94 on 18.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 26.92-26.94.
- 15:37Z setup, P1, salience 77: SGI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 67.35 above 66.66 on 3.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 66.16-66.66.
- 15:37Z setup, P1, salience 67: BRO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 73.035 above 72.3 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 72.01-72.3.
- 15:37Z setup, P1, salience 66: PPG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 122.87 above 121.97 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 120.39-121.97.
- 15:37Z setup, P1, salience 66: MSFU new session high: closed 41.87 above 41.78 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 40.99-41.52.
- 15:38Z setup, P1, salience 82: KOD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 94.405 above 92.11 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 92.11-92.11.
- 15:38Z setup, P1, salience 73: CMG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 34.985 above 34.54 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 34.19-34.54.
- 15:38Z setup, P1, salience 64: DVN new session high: closed 42.39 above 42.33 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 41.16-41.97.
- 15:38Z setup, P1, salience 63: TMF new session high: closed 30.42 above 30.33 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 30.03-30.2.
- 15:38Z setup, P1, salience 62: SCHP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 25.62 above 25.59 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 25.57-25.59.
- 15:39Z setup, P1, salience 91: MAA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 120.91 above 119.38 on 20.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 118.8-119.38.
- 15:39Z setup, P1, salience 88: CL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 96.92 above 96.26 on 6× its median minute volume today; opening range 95.58-96.26.
- 15:39Z setup, P1, salience 75: EVRG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 87.665 above 86.55 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 86.3-86.55.
- 15:39Z setup, P1, salience 74: VGLT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 52.66 above 52.57 on 3.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 52.48-52.57.
- 15:39Z setup, P1, salience 74: GLPI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 39.205 above 39.08 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 38.63-39.08.
- 15:40Z setup, P1, salience 79: VICI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 25.02 above 24.76 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 24.57-24.76.
- 15:40Z setup, P1, salience 77: STZ new session high: closed 143.235 above 143.06 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 139.42-141.07.
- 15:40Z setup, P1, salience 77: CELH new session high: closed 31.3 above 31.27 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 28.99-29.64.
- 15:40Z setup, P1, salience 64: GEHC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 82.84 above 82.36 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 81.94-82.36.
- 15:41Z setup, P1, salience 86: FISV new session high: closed 62.395 above 62.3 on 5.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 61.55-62.08.
- 15:41Z setup, P1, salience 84: SYY new session high: closed 76.325 above 76.14 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 74.84-75.08.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9795.13 · equity $9900.39 (-1%) · today -0.01% · 1 stocks, 0 options positions
- TNA: 2 shares at 52.95, now 52.66 (-0.61%), stop 52.5, target 55.5, intraday horizon, opened 9:47 AM ET. Thesis: TNA shows the cleanest intraday breakout among the 5 candidates: price closed 53.115 above the 15-min OR high of 52.85 on 5.8× median volume, with a tight 51.84-53.13 range and no negative news. Daily trend is down but RSI 39.7 is not oversold, and the 5-day decline (-7.8%) is modest. Entry at ~53.12, stop at OR low 51.84 (2.4% risk), target 55.50 (4.4% reward, R:R ~1.8). Size 2.5% of equity ($247.50) to keep risk small in a volatile market (-3.5% SPY). Invalidation: Reclaim below 52.85 (OR high) or a broad market selloff accelerating.

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 1/2 in the last hour, 1/4 open; $884 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.1); 1/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9597.12 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 737.76 (-3.78%), QQQ 657.085 (-5%), IWM 271.74, DIA 514.045, VIXY 20.32, TLT 82.045

SUBJECT CGMU
- 26.975; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
f10d2c89a02d [Nov 6, 10:37 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 67 | -0.1% since] CGMU +0.09% in 1 min (z 4.87 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT SGI
- 67.14; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT BRO
- 73.145; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PPG
- 122.59; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT MSFU
- 41.94; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT KOD
- 94.405; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
bbbd1089e8f0 [Nov 6, 10:27 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 61 | +0.1% since] KOD +1.32% in 1 min (z 4.4 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT CMG
- 34.92; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
018bc6e2aa26 [Nov 5, 4:12 PM ET | T2 zacks.com | earnings | sev 56] McDonald's Q3 Earnings Beat, but U.S. Traffic Still Pressures Growth (https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3024729/mcdonald-s-q3-earnings-beat-but-u-s-traffic-still-pressures-growth?cid=CS-ZC-FT-analyst_blog_plus|zer_report_insights-3024729)
> machine summary of the article: McDonald's reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.57, beating estimates by 6.3%, while global comparable sales grew 1.5% despite a 0.2% U.S. decline. The company plans 2,500 gross openings in 2026, though weak U.S. traffic and inflation are reported to cloud growth prospects. Zacks analysts maintain a Sell rank, citing mixed near-term signals despite the earnings beat.
7df7eaa76a17 [Nov 5, 4:12 PM ET | T2 zacks.com | earnings | sev 31] McDonald's Jumps 21.4% in a Month, but Can MCD Keep Climbing Higher? (https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3024736/mcdonald-s-jumps-21-4-in-a-month-but-can-mcd-keep-climbing-higher?cid=CS-ZC-FT-analyst_blog_plus|zer_report_insights-3024736)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT DVN
- 42.515; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
b057f555d64f [Nov 5, 4:16 PM ET | T1 sec.gov | earnings | sev 60] DVN 8-K: 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/10… [cut: 12,108 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "KOD",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 92.11,
      "take_profit": 98.5,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "KOD shows the strongest volume surge (3.4x median) among candidates with a clean breakout above the 15-min opening range (92.11-92.11) to 94.405. Salience 86. No negative news; T1 anomaly confirms price shock. Risk is defined by the OR low (92.11), offering ~2.3% downside risk for ~4.2% upside (98.5 target).",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 94.405, OR high 92.11, volume 3.4x median",
        "T1 anomaly: price shock +1.32% in 1 min",
        "No negative news in last 24h",
        "SPY -3.78% (broad market headwind, but KOD volume suggests independent strength)"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 92.11 (OR high) or broad market selloff accelerates.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MAA",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 118.8,
      "take_profit": 125,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "MAA has the highest salience (91) and massive volume (20.2x median) breaking its 15-min OR high (119.38) to 120.91. Salience 91. Strong momentum. Risk defined by OR low (118.8).",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 120.91, OR high 119.38, volume 20.2x median",
        "Salience 91 (highest in list)",
        "No negative news in last 24h",
        "SPY -3.78% (broad market headwind)"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 119.38 (OR high) or broad market selloff accelerates.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought KOD and MAA on opening-range breakouts with heavy volume. SPY is down -3.78%, so risk is managed with tight stops at OR highs/lows. TNA held."
}