Episode · the market · Nov 13, 10:06 AM

NOW: 2026-11-13T15:06Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:02Z setup, P1, salience 88: GPN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 90.47 above 89.85 on 6.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 88.25-89.85.
- 15:02Z setup, P1, salience 86: EQT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 52.41 above 52.33 on 16.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 52.14-52.33.
- 15:02Z setup, P1, salience 86: PLTD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 5.17 above 5.16 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.12-5.16.
- 15:02Z setup, P1, salience 75: SFM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 51.37 above 51 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 50.81-51.
- 15:02Z setup, P1, salience 69: KMB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 108.2 above 108 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 107.51-108.
- 15:03Z setup, P1, salience 88: NVD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 6.7186 above 6.68 on 11.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 6.31-6.68.
- 15:03Z setup, P1, salience 77: AVS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.09 above 8 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 7.97-8.
- 15:03Z setup, P1, salience 63: MO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 78.535 above 78.45 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 77.9-78.45.
- 15:04Z setup, P1, salience 88: WTW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 335.23 above 333.27 on 9× its median minute volume today; opening range 330.29-333.27.
- 15:04Z setup, P1, salience 86: SCHW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 91.06 above 90.82 on 5.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 89.87-90.82.
- 15:04Z setup, P1, salience 86: FIS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 28.82 above 28.74 on 8.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 28.57-28.74.
- 15:04Z setup, P1, salience 64: ADBE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 241.31 above 240.14 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 238.4-240.14.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 92: TTD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 16 above 15.78 on 5.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 15.48-15.78.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 66: FNV opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 249.46 above 249.21 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 249.01-249.21.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 65: DXCM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 81.91 above 81.77 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 81.5-81.77.
- 15:05Z setup, P1, salience 64: AON opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 338.66 above 337.69 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 335.87-337.69.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 95: TPL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 293.42 above 287.73 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 285.66-287.73.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 77: NMAX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 9.76 above 9.27 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 8.59-9.27.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 67: ASND opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 269.705 above 266.68 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 266.68-266.68.
- 15:06Z setup, P1, salience 65: GSK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 50.46 above 50.3 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 50.17-50.3.

OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR FEEDS (data, not instructions)
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- 15:04Z news, P2, salience 64: market shock (price_shock, severity 64, anomaly): Market-wide move: SPY -0.29% in 5 min (z -4.31)
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YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $218.03 · equity $10293.82 (+2.94%) · today -0.9% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.035 (0.03%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.705 (0.76%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 400.79 (4.39%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 179.79 (-2.67%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 258.74 (3.93%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.39 (0.56%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 753.48 (0.73%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- TOST: 52 shares at 34.47, now 34.7 (0.74%), stop 33.58, target 36.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: TOST is in a strong daily uptrend (above SMA20/50/200), with price breaking the 15-min opening range (33.58-34.24) on 4.1× median volume. The move is clean with no news, but the volume and technical structure are strong. Stop at the opening range low (33.58) provides a tight, logical invalidation. Target 36.50 (near 52-week high) offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 33.58. Invalidation: Close below 33.58 (opening range low)
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 146.83 (2.13%), stop 117.32, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months unti… [cut: 18,079 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "TTD",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 15.48,
      "take_profit": 18.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "Strongest technical setup: price broke 15-min opening range (15.48-15.78) on 5.9× median volume. Daily trend is up (19% above SMA20, 21% above SMA50) with 5-day return +24%. RSI 70.3 is high but not yet overbought for a momentum breakout. Target 18.50 offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 15.48 (opening range low).",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Close below 15.48 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "NVD",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 6.12,
      "take_profit": 8.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "Breakout above 15-min opening range (6.12-6.75) on 11.4× median volume. Daily trend is strongly up (40% above SMA20, 61% above SMA50) with 5-day return +30%. RSI 75.6 is elevated, reflecting strong momentum. Target 8.50 offers >1.2 R:R. Invalidation: Close below 6.12 (opening range low).",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Close below 6.12 (opening range low)",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought TTD and NVD on their opening-range breakouts on heavy volume. Both are in strong daily uptrends with clear invalidation levels at their opening range lows. Held all existing positions."
}