Episode · PRAX · Nov 10, 10:02 AM

NOW: 2026-11-10T15:02Z

WOKE FOR: PRAX (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:02Z price, P2, salience 60: PRAX, which you hold, moved 3.08% since your last review at 328.99; stop 315.07.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $1179.00 · equity $10271.96 (+2.72%) · today +0.52% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 386.94 (0.83%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 4 shares at 136.96, now 144.96 (5.82%), stop 138.44, target 176.97, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: A close below the trailing stop at 137.66 invalidates the bounce thesis and locks in the profit.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 338.68 (11.40%), stop 315.07, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below 310.39.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 250.23 (0.49%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.895 (0.29%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 197.945 (-0.51%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 23.77 (0.85%), stop 22.66, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 751.32 (0.49%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 50.93 (-3.82%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 140.08 (-2.63%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 348.82 (-1.00%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 2/8 entries in 24 h, 2/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2567.99). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $973.56 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2568); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 751.32 (-0.19%), QQQ 679.595 (+0.12%), IWM 281.2, DIA 521.81, VIXY 18.35, TLT 80.95

SUBJECT PRAX
- 338.68 (bid 337.31, ask 340.23), +1.63% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
3b2fcaa9749e [Nov 10, 12:59 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 71] Praxis Precision Medicines Q2 Earnings Call Highlights (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/praxis-prec… [cut: 10,940 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "PRAX",
      "action": "adjust_exits",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 316.24,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "PRAX is up 11.4% on strong Q3 results and a solid cash position ($1.3B). The move is backed by a confirmed T1 catalyst (SEC 8-K) and upcoming PDUFA dates in Dec '26/Jan '27. The position has exceeded its initial risk distance (entry 304.11 vs initial stop 281.67 = 22.44 risk). I am raising the stop to trail at that original distance (338.68 - 22.44 = 316.24) to lock in the majority of the gain while leaving room for the stock to run toward the 340 resistance level. No new entries are warranted at this stage; the thesis remains intact.",
      "evidence": [
        "Entry: 304.11. Current: 338.68 (+11.40%).",
        "Initial stop: 281.67 (opening range low). Risk distance: 22.44.",
        "Trailing stop raised to 316.24 to protect profits.",
        "News: Q3 2026 results, $1.3B cash, PDUFA dates Dec '26/Jan '27, EMERALD results expected Q4 '26."
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below the trailing stop at 316.24, invalidating the momentum thesis.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "PRAX is up 11.4% on solid Q3 results and a strong cash position. I raised the stop to trail at the original risk distance (316.24) to lock in gains while letting the trend run toward the 340 resistance level. The thesis remains intact with PDUFA dates and EMERALD results on the horizon."
}