Episode · U · Nov 10, 11:14 AM

NOW: 2026-11-10T16:14Z

WOKE FOR: U (P0 risk)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:14Z price, P0, salience 70: U, which you hold, moved -5.98% since your last review at 52.97; stop 47.67.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $3447.57 · equity $10220.76 (+2.21%) · today +0.02% · 9 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 387.25 (0.91%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 248.67 (-0.08%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.065 (0.38%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 192.985 (-3.03%), stop 160.43, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 23.495 (-0.34%), stop 22.66, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 747.77 (0.02%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 49.805 (-5.97%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 140.41 (-2.31%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 347.86 (-1.16%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 2/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 1/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2555.19). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 3/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $3243.15 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2555); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 747.77 (-0.66%), QQQ 674.085 (-0.69%), IWM 278.84, DIA 519.82, VIXY 18.715, TLT 80.845

SUBJECT U
- 49.805 (bid 48.23, ask 51.78), -3.13% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
4ba203a7cd58 [Nov 9, 8:25 PM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 71 | -3.3% since] What Unity Software (U) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-unity-software-u-said-its-q3-earnings-call)
26c8028b1586 [Nov 10, 4:43 AM ET | T2 finnhub.io | earnings | sev 46] Unity Software's Full Gaming Potential Yet to be Reflected in the Stock, BofA Says (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=b9b4d9c6fd8c50dc4d8adb7bc849f9633a9d278c12af212e11039d8c911adae9)
e30975101f8d [Nov 10, 2:42 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | analyst action | sev 46] Unity Software Consensus Price Target Raised 15.24% to $59.63 (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/unity-software-consensus-price-target-raised-1524-5963)
</untrusted>

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T15:48Z] Closing window active (15:48Z). No new entries allowed. All observed setups (UTHR, IYW, LABD, NVDQ, NVD, TEL, DXD, ALL, CMG, SPXS) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 9 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3447.57.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T15:43Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. All observed setups (SGOL, NVDQ, GPN, LYV, CLX, FICO, UCO, CSCO, TZA, SECZ, JBHT, TPL, MCK, RWM, STZ, CME) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 9 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3447.57.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T15:18Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. All observed setups (AGQ, AMG, SILJ, SIVR, SE, ORCL, PAYC, SNAP, VIK, IXUS, LMT, XLE, UNM, SLV, GLW, FNDE, GPIQ, S… [cut: 8,799 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "U",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "momentum",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "U is in the TREND CORE, managed by rules that trail the stop and sell on a close below the 50-day average. The current price of 49.805 is above the trailing stop of 47.67. The recent news includes a BofA positive note and a consensus price target raise to $59.63, which supports the long-term thesis despite the intraday pullback. No news has broken the trend or invalidated the thesis. The rules will handle the exit if the stop is hit or the 50-day average is breached. I will not second-guess the price action or the rules-managed stop.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 49.805, Stop 47.67",
        "News: BofA positive note, Consensus PT raised to $59.63"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Close below 50-day average or trailing stop hit.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "U is held in the TREND CORE with its stop intact at 47.67. Positive analyst news supports the thesis. Holding as per rules."
}