Episode · USO · Nov 12, 2:30 PM

NOW: 2026-11-12T19:30Z

WOKE FOR: USO (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 19:30Z price, P2, salience 60: USO, which you hold, moved 3.01% since your last review at 141.63; stop 116.48.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $214.93 · equity $10419.19 (+4.19%) · today -0.85% · 12 stocks, 0 options positions
- BOXX: 11 shares at 119.00, now 119.005 (0.00%), stop 118.52, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 0.4% above a 50-day average 1.1% over the 200-day; 6-month 2% at 0.04% daily ATR (strength 51.66); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- FRVO: 147 shares at 12.58, now 12.05 (-4.37%), stop 11.94, target 14.5, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio. Invalidation: Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).
- JD: 1 shares at 27.51, now 27.385 (-0.47%), stop 27.17, target 29.65, multi_day horizon, opened 10:07 AM ET. Thesis: JD broke its 15-min opening range (27.48) on massive 10.2× volume at 27.535. The move is clean, with the opening range low (27.17) providing a tight, logical stop. While no recent news is flagged, the sheer volume and breakout structure suggest strong institutional accumulation. Reward:risk is >1.2 (target ~29.65). Invalidation: Close below 27.17 (opening range low).
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 416.19 (8.43%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- NOK: 11 shares at 8.33, now 8.325 (-0.12%), stop 8.14, target 8.6, multi_day horizon, opened 10:52 AM ET. Thesis: NOK is breaking out of its 15-minute opening range (closed 8.31 above 8.28) on 6.2× median volume. Salience is 87. While there is a recent analyst downgrade (AlphaValue/Baader), the price action is ignoring it and showing strong buying pressure. The stop at 8.14 (OR low) is tight. The conviction is lower (6) due to the negative news catalyst, but the volume and breakout structure justify the entry. Reward:risk is >1.2. Invalidation: Price closes below 8.14 (opening range low).
- NTAP: 2 shares at 184.50, now 187.02 (1.36%), stop 149.72, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 112.5% (skipping the last month), 19.5% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 264.915 (6.50%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.485 (0.56%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 758.295 (1.43%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 145.86 (1.50%), stop 116.48, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 13.235 (5.84%), stop 12.99, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below $12.99 (trailing stop) or reclaims SMA50 ($13.48) with weakness.
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 378.03 (7.35%), stop 302.19, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: blocked by your envelope (4/4 open).
- Your envelope: 4/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2604.8). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 6/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $6.55 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2605); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positio… [cut: 10,342 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 116.48,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "USO is a long-term book position held above its 200-day average (127.33). Current price 145.86 is 14.5% above the 200-day SMA. The position has a wide trailing stop at 116.48. Recent news (Short-Term Energy Outlook) is supportive. No exit triggers are met.",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 145.86 > SMA200 127.33",
        "Stop 116.48 not hit",
        "News: Short-Term Energy Outlook (T2, sev 75)"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average or news breaking the long-term case.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "USO remains in a long-term uptrend above its 200-day average with no stop hits or bearish news triggers. No new entries are possible due to the daily envelope limit (4/4). All other holdings are stable within their stops."
}