Episode · the market · Nov 3, 2:39 PM

NOW: 2026-11-03T19:39Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 19:39Z setup, P1, salience 85: CGMU opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 26.745 above 26.72 on 4.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 26.72-26.72.
- 19:39Z setup, P1, salience 71: ULTA new session high: closed 635.01 above 634.3 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 626.26-630.85.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9900.47 · equity $9900.47 (-1%) · today +0.1% · 0 stocks, 0 options positions
- no stock positions

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 0/4 open; $990 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.12); 0/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9702.46 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 754.99 (-0.1%), QQQ 685.645 (-0.71%), IWM 280.515, DIA 517.45, VIXY 18.22, TLT 81.21

SUBJECT CGMU
- 26.745; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT ULTA
- 635.01; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T16:53Z] Closing window. All setups are opening-range breakouts with no fundamental catalysts. No new entries. Positions closed by code if any existed (none held).
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T16:28Z] Closing window (16:28Z). All setups are opening-range breakouts occurring after 16:15Z with no fundamental catalysts (CAH, PODD, HYMB, EGP, CAG, ED) or only minor anomalies (CR, CTAS). Conviction is low due to lack of news and the closing window environment. No new entries. Positions will be closed by code if any existed (none held).
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T16:23Z] Closing window. Most setups lack fundamental catalysts. No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T16:18Z] Multiple opening-range breakouts detected in the closing window (16:14-16:18Z). FICO, PGX, SRLN, XLF, DIA, LQDA, PKG, RBC, GL, IWN, QYLD, TYL, PFG, SWKS, AEE, NBIX, JBHT, BKLN, AVAV, VCLT, SIG, ITT, KYMR, CMS. Most are ETFs or low-float names with no specific news catalysts other than volume anomalies. The market is in the closing window; new intraday buys are generally discouraged unless conviction is very high and the setup is clean. Given the lack of fundamental catalysts for most of these br
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T14:30Z] Inside opening buffer until 14:40Z. No new buys allowed. Will scan for opening-range breakouts and new highs on heavy volume after the buffer clears.

YOUR WATCHES
- 727531d9-a4cc-41ef-8df3-d35566505a3c: news on CGNX at severity 60+, until 2026-11-04T17:41Z. Note: CGNX is up 6.5% today, trading above all key SMAs and VWAP. However, intraday RSI is elevated at 73.7, suggesting short-term exhaustion. The news is generic earnings chatter (T2) with no specific catalyst for today's move. The setup is technically strong but lacks fundamental confirmation. I will wa
- 3a53e53f-3d30-4f2f-a074-ac871e155438: MYRG above 292.4, until 2026-11-04T17:52Z. Note: MYRG broke above its opening range but is below VWAP (289.24) and SMA20 (284.98). The T1 anomaly is unconfirmed. Wait for a retest of the breakout level or a move above VWAP with volume. No entry yet.

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "CGMU",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 26.05,
      "take_profit": 27.5,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "CGMU broke above its 15-minute opening range (26.72-26.73) at 26.745 on 4.9x median volume. Price is above VWAP (26.73) and SMA20 (26.42). RSI is elevated (70.1 daily, 66.1 intraday) but not extreme. No news catalyst, so size is conservative. Entry: 26.745. Stop: 26.05 (2.5% below entry, below OR low). Target: 27.50 (approx 2.8% gain, R:R > 1.2).",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 26.745, OR 26.72-26.73",
        "Volume 4.9x median",
        "No news in 24h",
        "RSI 70.1 daily, 66.1 intraday",
        "VWAP 26.73, SMA20 26.42"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below OR low (26.72) or VWAP (26.73) with volume.",
      "structure_id": "cgmu_buy_001",
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ULTA",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 618,
      "take_profit": 655,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "ULTA made a new session high at 635.01, breaking above its opening range (623.58-630.85) on 3.2x median volume. Price is well above VWAP (629.75) and SMA20 (605.75). RSI is healthy (65.5 daily, 64.8 intraday). No news catalyst, so size is conservative. Entry: 635.01. Stop: 618.00 (2.7% below entry, below VWAP and OR high). Target: 655.00 (approx 3.1% gain, R:R > 1.2).",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 635.01, OR 623.58-630.85",
        "Volume 3.2x median",
        "No news in 24h",
        "RSI 65.5 daily, 64.8 intraday",
        "VWAP 629.75, SMA20 605.75"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below VWAP (629.75) or OR high (630.85) with volume.",
      "structure_id": "ulta_buy_001",
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "CGMU and ULTA both showed strong opening-range breakouts on heavy volume with no news catalysts. Entered both with conservative sizing (2.5% each) and intraday horizon. Stops set below opening range lows/VWAP. Targets set for ~3% gains."
}