Episode · the market · Nov 9, 9:51 AM

NOW: 2026-11-09T14:51Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 88: TMUS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 165.315 above 164.39 on 8.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 161.72-164.39.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: FIGR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 22.82 above 22.78 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 22.33-22.78.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: VYLR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 70.89 above 70.7 on 8.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 70.01-70.7.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: SIRI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 33.03 above 32.84 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 31.83-32.84.
- 14:47Z setup, P1, salience 86: KVYO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 21.14 above 21.09 on 5.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 20.75-21.09.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 90: CHYM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 32.74 above 32.4 on 6× its median minute volume today; opening range 31.71-32.4.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 89: BMNR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 18.59 above 18.45 on 6.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 18.06-18.45.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 88: SMH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 476.36 above 473.5 on 11.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 463.81-473.5.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 88: NVDL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 21.18 above 21.07 on 12.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 19.88-21.07.
- 14:48Z setup, P1, salience 87: IBKR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 77.96 above 77.69 on 14.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 76.79-77.69.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 95: HUT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 54.91 above 53.58 on 6.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 52.53-53.58.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 91: ESTC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 88.76 above 87.73 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 86.06-87.73.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 78: TWLO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 206.71 above 205.28 on 3.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 203.47-205.28.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 78: OWL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 10.165 above 10.14 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 9.92-10.14.
- 14:49Z setup, P1, salience 77: IVZ opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 28.11 above 28 on 3.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 27.64-28.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 95: IOVA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 8.145 above 7.97 on 11.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 7.82-7.97.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 87: MTSI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 224.25 above 223.4 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 212.17-223.4.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 87: CRL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 349.41 above 347.7 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 344-347.7.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 86: RPRX opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 67.69 above 67.54 on 11.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 67.03-67.54.
- 14:50Z setup, P1, salience 84: OKLO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 24.04 above 23.79 on 4.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 22.8-23.79.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 95: PWR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 569.675 above 557.58 on 6.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 550.45-557.58.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 88: KKR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 98.02 above 97.42 on 6.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 95.72-97.42.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 88: MKSI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 205.51 above 204.29 on 9.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 197.95-204.29.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 88: APH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 77.34 above 76.85 on 12.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 75.74-76.85.
- 14:51Z setup, P1, salience 86: ARMK opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 54.205 above 54.08 on 10.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 53.75-54.08.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $6043.79 · equity $9911.95 (-0.88%) · today +0.09% · 2 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 104.06 (0.32%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 137.345 (0.08%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 2/8 entries in 24 h, 2/3 in the last hour, 2/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2477.99). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 2/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $5845.55 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2478); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 747.225 (+1.61%), QQQ 671.7 (+2.34%), IWM 278.81, DIA 519.235, VIXY 19.2, TLT 82.065

SUBJECT TMUS
- 165.275; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT FIGR
- 23.27; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT VYLR
- 71.04; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT SIRI
- 32.94; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
a6ce45b4cd0c [Nov 9, 9:46 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 55 | +0.3% since] SIRI +3.24% in 15 min (z 4 after removing SPY's move)
3d5278d60a2f [Nov 9, 6:03 AM ET | T2 fool.com | antitrust | sev 51] Warren Buffett's Successor, Greg Abel, Just Plowed $27 Million Int… [cut: 13,812 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "The session is closing (14:51Z). The rules prohibit new entries in the closing window (only overnight/multi-day buys pass, and intraday positions are closed). I will hold my existing positions (FROG, NBIS) and close any intraday positions if they were open (none are). No new trades are initiated."
}