Episode · the market · Nov 6, 10:36 AM

NOW: 2026-11-06T15:36Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:32Z setup, P1, salience 90: AFL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 125.33 above 124.08 on 7.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 123.65-124.08.
- 15:32Z setup, P1, salience 87: AON opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 338.16 above 335.88 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 334.29-335.88.
- 15:32Z setup, P1, salience 86: UDR new session high: closed 36.98 above 36.92 on 13.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 36.17-36.42.
- 15:32Z setup, P1, salience 86: GPK new session high: closed 11.37 above 11.34 on 6.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 11.05-11.28.
- 15:32Z setup, P1, salience 86: XEL new session high: closed 80.28 above 80.15 on 15.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 79-79.54.
- 15:33Z setup, P1, salience 87: TDG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 1193.41 above 1189.02 on 7.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 1183.43-1189.02.
- 15:33Z setup, P1, salience 82: CW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 451.9 above 451.25 on 4.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 441.44-451.25.
- 15:33Z setup, P1, salience 68: UL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 66.21 above 65.66 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 65.23-65.66.
- 15:34Z setup, P1, salience 87: NVMI opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 305.98 above 301.55 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 300.71-301.55.
- 15:34Z setup, P1, salience 86: INSW opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 96.485 above 96.36 on 27.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 95.89-96.36.
- 15:34Z setup, P1, salience 81: TMF opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 30.28 above 30.2 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 30.03-30.2.
- 15:34Z setup, P1, salience 77: AVS new session high: closed 9.6 above 9.59 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 9.25-9.28.
- 15:34Z setup, P1, salience 75: TLT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 81.985 above 81.89 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 81.76-81.89.
- 15:35Z setup, P1, salience 93: ESAB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 81.495 above 80.15 on 7.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 79.33-80.15.
- 15:35Z setup, P1, salience 86: CAG new session high: closed 15.295 above 15.26 on 6.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 14.78-14.91.
- 15:35Z setup, P1, salience 80: NVD new session high: closed 5.04 above 5.02 on 4.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 4.75-4.85.
- 15:35Z setup, P1, salience 79: ALLE new session high: closed 186.915 above 186.58 on 4.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 184.24-184.59.
- 15:35Z setup, P1, salience 79: WH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 78.18 above 77.03 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 77.03-77.03.
- 15:36Z setup, P1, salience 68: PEN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 320.04 above 319.57 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 319.57-319.57.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9795.13 · equity $9900.56 (-0.99%) · today 0% · 1 stocks, 0 options positions
- TNA: 2 shares at 52.95, now 52.74 (-0.45%), stop 52.5, target 55.5, intraday horizon, opened 9:47 AM ET. Thesis: TNA shows the cleanest intraday breakout among the 5 candidates: price closed 53.115 above the 15-min OR high of 52.85 on 5.8× median volume, with a tight 51.84-53.13 range and no negative news. Daily trend is down but RSI 39.7 is not oversold, and the 5-day decline (-7.8%) is modest. Entry at ~53.12, stop at OR low 51.84 (2.4% risk), target 55.50 (4.4% reward, R:R ~1.8). Size 2.5% of equity ($247.50) to keep risk small in a volatile market (-3.5% SPY). Invalidation: Reclaim below 52.85 (OR high) or a broad market selloff accelerating.

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 1/2 in the last hour, 1/4 open; $884 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.14); 1/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9597.12 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 737.59 (-3.8%), QQQ 656.41 (-5.1%), IWM 271.89, DIA 513.58, VIXY 20.36, TLT 82.02

SUBJECT AFL
- 125.255; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT AON
- 338.32; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT UDR
- 36.96; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
8ef3f7aae9dc [Nov 5, 3:52 PM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 56 | -0.0% since] UDR +0.85% in 5 min (z 4.07 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT GPK
- 11.345; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT XEL
- 80.155; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
9994986f5ca8 [Nov 5, 4:29 PM ET | T1 sec.gov | offering | sev 65] XEL 8-K: 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000119312526449951/0001193125-26-449951-index.htm)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT TDG
- 1194.71; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT CW
- 449.535; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT UL
- 66.26; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT NVMI
- 304.12; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
e686ecd2855e [Nov 6, 9:41 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 88 | +1.1% since] NVMI +7.43% in 1 min (z 23.11 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT INSW
- 96.485; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
16de82844b07 [Nov 5, 11:41 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 83 | -1.3% since] INSW -1.52% in 1 min (z -6.01 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT TMF
- 30.33; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT AVS
- 9.63; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
4420778ad1a5 [Nov 5, 3:58 PM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 86 | -1.0% since] AVS +1.46% in 1 min (z 6.26 after removing SPY's move)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT TLT
- 82.025; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
d03259f3254e [Nov 6, 9:55 AM ET | T1 anomaly | volume shock | sev 33 | +0.3% since] TLT traded 5.9× its median 1-minute IEX volume (+0.02%)
d84a99e8b6c1 [Nov 5, 1:31 PM ET | T1 anomaly | volume shock | sev 33 | -0.1% since] TLT traded 14.59× its median 1-minute IEX volume (+0.04%)
69687ec745f7 [Nov 5, 1… [cut: 10,932 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "SPY is down -3.8% and QQQ -5.1%, a severe broad-market selloff. The P1 setups (AFL, AON, ESAB, etc.) are opening-range breakouts or new session highs occurring into this heavy tailwind. Buying breakouts in a -5% market is statistically likely to fail (liquidity traps, fade). I am holding TNA (intraday) which is already closed by code or will be managed. I will not enter new long positions into this market structure. I will review TNA's exit and monitor for any reversal setups later."
}