Episode · the market · Nov 12, 8:00 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T13:00Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 13:00Z session, P2, salience 50: Premarket: the session opens at 9:30 AM ET; buys are allowed from 9:40 AM ET. Plan the day: set watches and notes for the open.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $325.24 · equity $10501.22 (+5.01%) · today -0.07% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- KRMN: 59 shares at 44.04, now 44.49 (1.02%), stop 44.07, target 48, multi_day horizon, opened 12:45 PM ET. Thesis: KRMN closed at 44.03, breaking above its 15-min opening range high of 43.74 on 6.5× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (above SMA20/50) with a 5-day return of +28.87% and RSI 60.6. The move is supported by heavy volume and a clear technical breakout. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 43.39. Invalidation: Price closes below 43.39 (opening range low)
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 404.8321 (5.47%), stop 320.84, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 259.78 (4.42%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.14 (0.41%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SCHE: 28 shares at 35.22, now 35.14 (-0.23%), stop 34.5, target 38, multi_day horizon, opened 10:52 AM ET. Thesis: SCHE broke above its 15-min opening range high (35.15) on 15.5× median volume, closing at 35.21. This is a strong technical breakout with heavy volume. No recent news in our feeds, so the move is purely technical/flow-driven. The setup is strong enough to warrant a trade based on momentum and volume. Entry: 35.21. Stop: 34.50 (below the opening range low of 35.09 and providing a ~2% risk). Target: 38.00 (approx 8% upside, R:R ~4:1). Invalidation: Price closes below 34.50 (opening range low area).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 756.08 (1.14%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 48.67 (-8.12%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 140.86 (-2.10%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.69 (1.57%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 366.0609 (3.92%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: outside the regular session. New buys: blocked (outside the regular session).
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 4/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2625.31). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $115.22 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2625); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 756.08 (-0.49%), QQQ 683.15 (-0.17%), IWM 282.4362, DIA n/a, VIXY 17.34, TLT 80.81

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-11T14:40Z] P2 review: Market is up (SPY +0.55%, QQQ +1.25%). No new setups presented in this brief. Holdings are stable. S is approaching its $25 target. No news triggers for long-term book positions. No action needed at this time.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:35Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:07Z] 20:07Z: Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (VTRS, EWBC, SPSM, CHTR) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T19:12Z] Closing window (… [cut: 8,552 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "MARKET",
      "text": "P2 review at 08:00 ET. No new entries allowed until regular session opens (9:30 ET). All 10 holdings are within their stops and targets. Will monitor for open setups and review holdings at 09:40 ET."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "P2 review at 08:00 ET. No new entries allowed until the regular session opens at 09:30 ET. All 10 holdings remain within their stops and targets; no exits or adjustments needed. I will set a watch for the open and review setups at 09:40 ET."
}