Episode · the market · Nov 6, 11:06 AM

NOW: 2026-11-06T16:06Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:02Z setup, P1, salience 77: IBM opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 244.585 above 242.92 on 3.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 240.97-242.92.
- 16:02Z setup, P1, salience 71: BRK.B opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 571.865 above 567.06 on 2.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 562.76-567.06.
- 16:03Z setup, P1, salience 86: ASTS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 31.42 above 29.58 on 3.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 27.76-29.58.
- 16:04Z setup, P1, salience 74: STT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 167 above 166.8 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 165.1-166.8.
- 16:04Z setup, P1, salience 66: PRIM new session high: closed 65.035 above 64.57 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 61.51-62.18.
- 16:04Z setup, P1, salience 66: SUPN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 26.705 above 26.55 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 26.36-26.55.
- 16:05Z setup, P1, salience 74: FOUR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 43.62 above 42.33 on 2.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 41.23-42.33.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9795.13 · equity $9901.33 (-0.99%) · today +0% · 1 stocks, 0 options positions
- TNA: 2 shares at 52.95, now 53.06 (0.27%), stop 52.5, target 55.5, intraday horizon, opened 9:47 AM ET. Thesis: TNA shows the cleanest intraday breakout among the 5 candidates: price closed 53.115 above the 15-min OR high of 52.85 on 5.8× median volume, with a tight 51.84-53.13 range and no negative news. Daily trend is down but RSI 39.7 is not oversold, and the 5-day decline (-7.8%) is modest. Entry at ~53.12, stop at OR low 51.84 (2.4% risk), target 55.50 (4.4% reward, R:R ~1.8). Size 2.5% of equity ($247.50) to keep risk small in a volatile market (-3.5% SPY). Invalidation: Reclaim below 52.85 (OR high) or a broad market selloff accelerating.

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 3/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 1/4 open; $990 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.33); 1/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9597.1 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 738.805 (-3.64%), QQQ 658.275 (-4.83%), IWM 272.53, DIA 514.59, VIXY 20.25, TLT 82.11

SUBJECT IBM
- 244.235; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT BRK.B
- 571.58; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT ASTS
- 31.28; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
19c4a639f9f4 [Nov 6, 9:51 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 60 | +3.9% since] ASTS +8.50% in 15 min (z 4.37 after removing SPY's move)
1bc106b18bd8 [Nov 6, 7:03 AM ET | T2 fool.com | m and a | sev 32] AST SpaceMobile's Brazil Deal Could Be a Major Growth Catalyst (https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/06/ast-spacemobile-s-brazil-deal-could-be-a-major-growth-catalyst?source=iedfolrf0000001)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT STT
- 166.95; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PRIM
- 64.98; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT SUPN
- 26.71; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT FOUR
- 43.585; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-06T13:15Z] October Jobs report drops at 08:30 ET (15 min). Market is closed; new buys blocked until open. Will wait for the data release and initial volatility to settle before evaluating intraday or swing setups. Watches for VCRM and JMUB remain active.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-05T16:01Z] All 18 P1 setups are opening-range breakouts or new session highs occurring in the closing window (15:57-16:01Z) with no fundamental catalysts in our feeds. Conviction is low due to lack of news and the closing window environment. No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T21:10Z] Market closed higher (SPY +1.48%). No positions held. Ready for tomorrow's open to look for setups.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T20:40Z] Closing window (20:40Z). All intraday positions (BUG, SNX) will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (3/4 in 24h, 0/2 in last hour, but closing window rules and prior fullness apply). No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T16:19Z] Closing window (16:18Z). All intraday positions will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (4/4 in 24h).

YOUR WATCHES
- 2e62424e-5404-4d44-9178-df253c9e5011: VCRM below 74.22, until 2026-11-06T19:26Z. Note: VCRM OR low 74.22. Breakout failed if price reclaims below 74.22; review for potential short or wait for retest of 74.18-74.22 range.
- 4677d352-1b90-4c35-ac57-13ded726fc05: JMUB below 49.18, until 2026-11-06T19:20Z. Note: JMUB OR low 49.18. Breakout failed if price reclaims below 49.18; review for potential short or wait for retest of 49.22-49.29 range.

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "ASTS",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 29.58,
      "take_profit": 35,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "ASTS shows the strongest breakout profile: 3.9× median volume, closed 31.42 above 29.58 OR high, +8.5% in 15 min with z-score 4.37 after removing SPY's move. The Brazil deal (T2) provides a catalyst, though the stock is heavily oversold (RSI 28 daily) and down 23.6% over 5 days. The breakout is clean, but the extreme daily oversold condition and lack of T1 confirmation warrant caution. Entry at ~31.42, stop at OR low 29.58 (3.1% risk), target 35.00 (11.5% reward, R:R ~3.7). Size 2.5% of equity ($247.50) to manage risk in a volatile, downtrending stock. Invalidation: Reclaim below 29.58 (OR high) or a broad market selloff accelerating.",
      "evidence": [
        "ASTS closed 31.42 above 29.58 OR high on 3.9× median volume",
        "Brazil deal catalyst (T2, sev 32)",
        "RSI 28 daily, 5-day decline -23.6%",
        "VWAP 30.2, day range 27.58-31.69",
        "SPY -3.64%, QQQ -4.83%"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 29.58 (OR high) or broad market selloff accelerating.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TNA",
      "action": "sell",
      "allocation_pct": 0,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "TNA has achieved its intraday target of 55.50 (currently 53.06, up 0.27%). The position was opened at 52.95 with a target of 55.50. Given the market's sharp decline (-3.64% SPY) and the stock's modest gain, it is prudent to lock in profits and exit before the closing window. The thesis of a clean intraday breakout has played out, and the market environment is unfavorable for holding further. Invalidation: N/A - exiting to secure profits.",
      "evidence": [
        "TNA closed 53.06, up 0.27% from entry 52.95",
        "Target 55.50 not yet hit, but market is weak",
        "SPY -3.64%, QQQ -4.83%",
        "Opened 9:47 AM ET, intraday horizon",
        "No negative news"
      ],
      "invalidation": "N/A - exiting to secure profits.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "ASTS breakout on heavy volume with Brazil deal catalyst, but oversold and weak market. TNA exiting to lock in profits in weak market."
}