Episode · the market · Nov 6, 9:46 AM

NOW: 2026-11-06T14:46Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 90: AEHR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 55.39 above 54.89 on 10.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 52.8-54.89.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 89: PL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 12.01 above 11.91 on 8.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 11.49-11.91.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 89: XP opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 15.35 above 15.23 on 5.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 15.05-15.23.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 88: NU opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 12.21 above 12.13 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 11.98-12.13.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 88: TNA opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 53.115 above 52.85 on 5.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 51.84-52.85.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9901.04 · equity $9901.04 (-0.99%) · today +0% · 0 stocks, 0 options positions
- no stock positions

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 2/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 0/4 open; $990 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2475.26); 0/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9703.02 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2475); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 739.89 (-3.5%), QQQ 662.575 (-4.21%), IWM 272.24, DIA 512.65, VIXY 20.06, TLT 81.79

SUBJECT AEHR
- 55.39; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PL
- 12.01; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT XP
- 15.35; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
b65aee104ae9 [Nov 5, 4:03 PM ET | T2 marketscreener.com | analyst action | sev 31 | +3.8% since] UBS Adjusts XP Inc. Price Target to $23 From $37, Maintains Buy Rating (https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ubs-adjusts-xp-price-target-to-23-from-37-maintains-buy-rating-ce785fddd98cfe2d)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT NU
- 12.21; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
439674b92527 [Nov 5, 9:46 AM ET | T1 anomaly | price shock | sev 62 | +4.0% since] NU +0.64% in 1 min (z 4.51 after removing SPY's move)
e957b1c36fe1 [Nov 5, 1:12 PM ET | T2 zacks.com | earnings | sev 59 | +4.6% since] Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Q3 Release (https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3024430/nu-holdings-ltd-nu-earnings-expected-to-grow-what-to-know-ahead-of-q3-release?cid=CS-ZC-FT-fundamental_analysis|yseop_template_9-3024430)
> machine summary of the article: Nu Holdings Ltd. is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share and revenues of $5.7 billion for the quarter ended September 2026. The Zacks Earnings ESP is -5.62%, and the stock holds a Zacks Rank of #3, making it difficult to predict an earnings beat. Analysts have revised the EPS estimate 2.78% lower over the last 30 days.
a1708a665e4e [Nov 5, 12:20 PM ET | T1 anomaly | volume shock | sev 33 | +4.4% since] NU traded 11.21× its median 1-minute IEX volume (+0.13%)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT TNA
- 53.115; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-06T13:15Z] October Jobs report drops at 08:30 ET (15 min). Market is closed; new buys blocked until open. Will wait for the data release and initial volatility to settle before evaluating intraday or swing setups. Watches for VCRM and JMUB remain active.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-05T16:01Z] All 18 P1 setups are opening-range breakouts or new session highs occurring in the closing window (15:57-16:01Z) with no fundamental catalysts in our feeds. Conviction is low due to lack of news and the closing window environment. No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T21:10Z] Market closed higher (SPY +1.48%). No positions held. Ready for tomorrow's open to look for setups.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T20:40Z] Closing window (20:40Z). All intraday positions (BUG, SNX) will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (3/4 in 24h, 0/2 in last hour, but closing window rules and prior fullness apply). No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T16:19Z] Closing window (16:18Z). All intraday positions will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (4/4 in 24h).

YOUR WATCHES
- 2e62424e-5404-4d44-9178-df253c9e5011: VCRM below 74.22, until 2026-11-06T19:26Z. Note: VCRM OR low 74.22. Breakout failed if price reclaims below 74.22; review for potential short or wait for retest of 74.18-74.22 range.
- 4677d352-1b90-4c35-ac57-13ded726fc05: JMUB below 49.18, until 2026-11-06T19:20Z. Note: JMUB OR low 49.18. Breakout failed if price reclaims below 49.18; review for potential short or wait for retest of 49.22-49.29 range.

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "TNA",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 51.84,
      "take_profit": 55.5,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "TNA shows the cleanest intraday breakout among the 5 candidates: price closed 53.115 above the 15-min OR high of 52.85 on 5.8× median volume, with a tight 51.84-53.13 range and no negative news. Daily trend is down but RSI 39.7 is not oversold, and the 5-day decline (-7.8%) is modest. Entry at ~53.12, stop at OR low 51.84 (2.4% risk), target 55.50 (4.4% reward, R:R ~1.8). Size 2.5% of equity ($247.50) to keep risk small in a volatile market (-3.5% SPY).",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 52.85 (OR high) or a broad market selloff accelerating.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AEHR",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": 2.5,
      "sell_pct": 100,
      "stop_loss": 52.8,
      "take_profit": 57.5,
      "horizon": "intraday",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "AEHR broke above 54.89 on 10.8× volume, closing 55.39. However, daily trend is strongly bearish (SMA20 -10.6%, SMA50 -30.6%, RSI 40.8) and ATR is high (12.9%), making it a higher-risk, lower-conviction trade than TNA. The move is on no news, which is acceptable for a pure technical breakout but warrants caution. Entry at ~55.40, stop at 52.80 (4.7% risk), target 57.50 (3.8% reward, R:R ~0.8). This R:R is borderline; I will size it at 2.5% but monitor closely. If price fails to hold above VWAP (54.49), I will exit early.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Reclaim below 54.89 (OR high) or failure to hold above VWAP 54.49.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "TNA",
      "text": "Bought 2.5% at 53.12. Stop 51.84. Target 55.50. OR low is key support. Market is weak (-3.5% SPY), so profit-taking is likely. Exit if SPY drops another 1%."
    },
    {
      "subject": "AEHR",
      "text": "Bought 2.5% at 55.40. Stop 52.80. Target 57.50. High ATR (12.9%) and bearish daily trend make this a speculative play. Watch VWAP 54.49 as a live support level. Exit early if it breaks."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "Bought TNA (2.5%) and AEHR (2.5%) on their opening-range breakouts. TNA has better R:R and less bearish daily context. AEHR is a higher-risk technical play on no news. Both are intraday, flat by close. Market is weak (-3.5% SPY), so exits will be proactive."
}