Episode · the market · Nov 9, 1:27 PM

NOW: 2026-11-09T18:27Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 18:23Z setup, P1, salience 74: NBIX new session high: closed 167.82 above 167.61 on 3.6× its median minute volume today; opening range 163.45-166.34.
- 18:23Z setup, P1, salience 65: IRON opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 79.985 above 79.63 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 77.02-79.63.
- 18:24Z setup, P1, salience 86: AON opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 339.43 above 337.23 on 4.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 335.07-337.23.
- 18:24Z setup, P1, salience 86: TPR new session high: closed 136 above 135.85 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 134.06-135.04.
- 18:24Z setup, P1, salience 63: SARO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 28.71 above 28.67 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 28.14-28.67.
- 18:25Z setup, P1, salience 79: WTS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 363.82 above 354.91 on 3× its median minute volume today; opening range 354.91-354.91.
- 18:25Z setup, P1, salience 71: CTVA new session high: closed 12.245 above 12.23 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 11.98-12.05.
- 18:25Z setup, P1, salience 63: TOL new session high: closed 156.985 above 156.77 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 154.4-155.88.
- 18:25Z setup, P1, salience 63: FIVE new session high: closed 254.13 above 253.74 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 247.41-249.62.
- 18:25Z setup, P1, salience 63: AMZD new session high: closed 8.07 above 8.06 on 2.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 7.86-7.94.
- 18:26Z setup, P1, salience 66: COO new session high: closed 63.68 above 63.59 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 62.78-63.08.
- 18:27Z setup, P1, salience 84: TGT new session high: closed 166.145 above 165.85 on 4.8× its median minute volume today; opening range 161.33-165.35.
- 18:27Z setup, P1, salience 71: TYL opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 421.91 above 419.63 on 2.9× its median minute volume today; opening range 418.47-419.63.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $10044.83 (+0.45%) · today +1.43% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 106.525 (2.72%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 388.88 (1.31%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 138.86 (1.43%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 310.32 (2.17%), stop 287.16, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the trailing stop at 287.16.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.34 (1.39%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.77 (0.23%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 198.7 (-0.15%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 751.91 (0.58%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 52.06 (-1.71%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 143.79 (0.08%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24,… [cut: 13,441 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "The closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active; no new entries are allowed. All observed setups lack confirmed catalysts and are late-day breakouts, which are not suitable for overnight holds under the rules. The book holds 11 stocks with no exits triggered; cash is low ($239.54). No action taken."
}